Part of: 2026 PGA Championship Winner

Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship?

7 smart money signals detected, totaling $18,549.

Categories: PGA, Major Championships, PGA Championship, Sports, Golf

Notable Trades

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable high-volume serial cross-market trader bought Yes at 76¢ before a sharp move to 89¢, with related positioning across the event.

  • This bettor has a long history across 2,375 resolved bets and is up about $428K lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 76¢ before the market quickly jumped to 89¢.
  • The same wallet has $20K positioned across 3 related PGA Championship markets.

$1,887 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 58%

75% winner buys No

Proven sharp wallet with 75% win rate and $19.2M profit bought No on a highly mispriced-looking long-dated golf outright market.

  • This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up $19.2M lifetime.
  • They are a major cross-market trader, with $10.1M deployed across 217 events.
  • Bought No at 35¢ against a golfer priced like a heavy favorite in a long-shot outright market.

$3,382 on No | Wallet win rate: 75%

92% winner flips to No

Sharp wallet override: a bettor with a 92% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L bought No despite a low composite score.

  • This bettor wins 92% of resolved bets and is up $14.5k lifetime.
  • They bought No at 41¢ after previously closing a Yes position, suggesting a fresh shift in view.
  • Entry at 41¢ implies they see meaningful downside from the current Yes-heavy market.

$1,330 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

Sharp cluster fading spike

A profitable sharp wallet joined a 3-wallet cluster buying No against an extreme price move, with cross-market positioning and a clearly contrarian thesis.

  • A bettor who wins 92% of resolved trades joined this No position and is up $14.5k lifetime.
  • Three wallets bought $5.3k of No after Yes spiked to an unusually high 68%.
  • The sharp wallet is active across 6 related PGA markets, suggesting a broader event thesis.

$5,316 on No

92% winner flips to NO

Sharp wallet with a 92% resolved-bet win rate and positive lifetime P&L flipped from a prior Yes position into No on Aaron Rai winning.

  • This bettor wins 92% of resolved bets and is up $14.5K lifetime.
  • They closed a prior Yes position and bought No at 70¢, signaling a fresh flip in view.
  • The market has jumped sharply in 24 hours, and this trade fades that move.

$1,399 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%

Profitable serial event trader

Profitable high-volume serial cross-market trader is buying No on an apparently stretched golf outright after a sharp price move.

  • This bettor is up $428k lifetime across 2,375 resolved trades.
  • They have traded 288 event groups and are positioning across 3 PGA Championship markets.
  • Entry at 67¢ on No fades a big move that priced Aaron Rai near a one-in-three chance to win.

$1,962 on No | Wallet win rate: 58%

Proven cross-market bettor

Proven profitable wallet with a 78% win rate and extensive cross-market history is taking a $3.3k No position as part of a broader PGA Championship thesis.

  • This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up $261k lifetime.
  • They have traded across 40 events and are now positioned in 5 PGA Championship markets.
  • The $3.3k No bet is part of a broader $16.8k event-level position.

$3,272 on No | Wallet win rate: 78%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 44268602, $115,315
  2. 0x37e4...c991 Outcome 44268602, $15,909 (75% win rate)
  3. 0x5375...aeea Outcome 34152308, $7,913 (44% win rate)
  4. 0x8b29...b861 Outcome 44268602, $6,094
  5. 0xe401...7b88 Outcome 44268602, $5,388 (65% win rate)
  6. 0x20f7...5527 Outcome 44268602, $5,245 (92% win rate)
  7. 0x1d60...453d Outcome 44268602, $4,826 (64% win rate)
  8. 0xb2ee...9bdc Outcome 44268602, $4,146 (63% win rate)
  9. 0x29df...260a Outcome 44268602, $3,000
  10. 0xdebb...eedb Outcome 44268602, $2,898 (65% win rate)

Related Theses

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Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship?

Resolved2026 PGA Championship Winner $18,549 tracked7 signalsPGAMajor ChampionshipsPGA ChampionshipSportsGolf

This market will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 PGA Championship scheduled for May 14-17, 2026. If this player misses the cut, withdraws, is disqualified or otherwise eliminated from contention from the PGA Championship based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Championship official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 PGA Championship is cancelled, postponed, or there is otherwise no official winner declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA Championship website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Notable Trades

Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship?

2d ago

$1,887 on Yes at 76¢

Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship?

2d ago

$3,382 on No at 35¢

Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship?

2d ago

$1,330 on No at 41¢

Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship?

2d ago

$5,316 on No at 45¢

Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship?

2d ago

$1,399 on No at 70¢

Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship?

2d ago

$1,962 on No at 67¢

Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship?

2d ago

$3,272 on No at 90¢

Related Theses