Part of: AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether an eligible AI lab or its official representative will announce a solution to one of five qualifying Millennium Prize Problems by 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. The market resolves on October 1, 2026, and its latest smart-money alert reports a 93% winner adding to No; no current market price was provided in the metadata.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an eligible AI lab, or an official representative of an eligible AI lab, announces that the lab has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems by 11:59 PM ET of the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,946.

Categories: Math, Tech, Science, AI

Notable Trades

93% winner adds to No

A serial cross-market trader with 93% wins is adding substantially to an existing No position, making this a notable conviction trade despite only moderate evidence of pricing edge.

  • This bettor has won 93% of 101 resolved trades and is up $79,156 overall.
  • They are adding $1,946 to an existing No position, bringing their investment to roughly $4,742.
  • The No entry at 80¢ aligns with the market's 80% implied probability, so the track record—not a clear discount—is the main reason to follow.

$1,946 on No | Wallet win rate: 93%

Top Holders

  1. 0xb4f2...e5fa No, $9,303 (76% win rate)
  2. 0x7365...64da Yes, $7,483 (59% win rate)
  3. 0x2525...b919 No, $3,476 (54% win rate)
  4. 0x85a8...9281 No, $2,796 (93% win rate)
  5. 0xb5d0...f8e5 Yes, $2,738
  6. 0x5999...ae94 Yes, $2,263 (76% win rate)
  7. 0xb760...ccd7 Yes, $2,000 (54% win rate)
  8. 0xd205...93a7 Yes, $1,922
  9. 0xbf9f...2a46 Yes, $1,800
  10. 0x5fb2...6b55 Yes, $1,648

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Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?

18dAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?$1,946 tracked1 signalMathTechScienceAI
Yes
45¢
No
56¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an eligible AI lab, or an official representative of an eligible AI lab, announces that the lab has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems by 11:59 PM ET of the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Price History — “No
95¢
66¢
36¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?

1d ago

$1,946 on No at 80¢

80¢56¢24¢

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