Part of: Will Anduril's valuation hit __ by June 30?

Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $110B by June 30?

This prediction market asks whether Anduril’s private market valuation, using Nasdaq Private Market’s NPM Price, will reach or exceed $110B on any trading day through June 30, 2026. The market is in the finance and private tech/defense category and resolves after the relevant NPM data is available, with resolution scheduled for July 1, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking $2,250 in smart money activity from 1 signal for this market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anduril's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,250.

Categories: Finance, Privates, Palmer Luckey, Tech, Big Tech, defense, Anduril

Notable Trades

Perfect-record cross-market bettor

Sharp serial cross-market bettor with a 51-0 resolved record bought No on a thin Anduril valuation market, sizing larger than the last 24h volume.

  • This bettor has won 51 of 51 resolved trades and is up $25.5K lifetime.
  • They are a serial cross-market trader, with $1.23M deployed across 59 markets.
  • This $2.25K No buy was 129% of the market’s 24h volume, showing conviction in a thin book.

$2,250 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

  1. 0xac4f...f7e8 Yes, $4,100 (64% win rate)
  2. 0xa569...96ec No, $2,500 (100% win rate)
  3. 0x7650...fac1 No, $1,231 (87% win rate)
  4. 0xc8ab...6418 No, $961 (47% win rate)
  5. 0x7495...7fcf Yes, $800
  6. 0x8454...331a No, $500 (92% win rate)
  7. 0x7c30...7673 No, $500 (85% win rate)
  8. 0x6f67...102c Yes, $474
  9. 0xe0ac...990d Yes, $409
  10. 0x9e88...301c No, $322 (47% win rate)

Related Theses

Anduril won't reach $110B

Covers 1 related market

Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $110B by June 30?

29dWill Anduril's valuation hit __ by June 30?$2,250 tracked1 signalFinancePrivatesPalmer LuckeyTechBig TechdefenseAnduril
Yes
11¢
No
90¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anduril's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Price History — “No
91¢
84¢
77¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $110B by June 30?

1h ago

$2,250 on No at 90¢

90¢90¢

Related Theses