Part of: Which company has the #3 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
This prediction market asks whether Anthropic will own the model ranked #3 on the Chatbot Arena Text Arena Overall leaderboard with Style Control On at the end of June 2026. It resolves using the Rank column on lmarena.ai when checked on June 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, with PolySpotter tracking $1,283 in smart money activity so far.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,283.
Categories: Big Tech, AI, Tech
Notable Trades
Profitable quiet-market buyer
A repeat flagged, profitable wallet bought almost an entire thin order book on a quiet AI leaderboard market that has already moved sharply this week.
- This bettor is up $15.3K across 128 resolved trades, despite not having an elite win rate.
- The $1.3K buy was nearly the full listed liquidity and about 98x the market’s 24h volume.
- The market has already moved +25 points this week, and this trade adds to the upward momentum.
$1,283 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $3,167
- 0xa7d2...f954 — No, $1,832
- 0x28b2...eb4f — Yes, $1,746 (66% win rate)
- 0xf579...9989 — Yes, $1,467 (64% win rate)
- 0xd8d5...8935 — Yes, $903 (74% win rate)
- 0xb89f...1c44 — Yes, $831 (47% win rate)
- 0xaee8...1154 — Yes, $663
- 0xcf00...353f — No, $642
- 0xca52...0cdf — Yes, $576
- 0xf2aa...21fb — Yes, $311 (43% win rate)
Related Theses
WTI rallies but stays below 130
Covers 4 related markets
