This bettor has won 80% of resolved trades and is up $594 lifetime. They bought $1,022 of Yes at 84¢, adding conviction despite already-high odds. The market is reasonably liquid, so the main signal is the wallet’s track record rather than trade size.

Part of: Which company has best AI model end of July?

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

3 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,520.

Categories: Tech, AI

Notable Trades

80% winner buys Yes

A modest but positive sharp-wallet signal: this bettor has won 80% of 15 resolved trades and is buying Yes at 84¢ despite the market already pricing it as likely.

This bettor has won 80% of resolved trades and is up $594 lifetime.
They bought $1,022 of Yes at 84¢, adding conviction despite already-high odds.
The market is reasonably liquid, so the main signal is the wallet’s track record rather than trade size.

$1,008 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

11-wallet funded cluster

An 11-wallet cluster sharing the same funder is backing Yes on Anthropic at 84¢, though the individual wallet has a weak track record and the stake is modest.

11 linked wallets share the same funder and are positioned the same way.
The cluster is buying Yes at 84¢ on a market with tight 83¢/85¢ pricing.
This is a coordination signal, not a proven-sharp wallet signal; this wallet is down $1.2K lifetime.

$1,490 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 62%

80% winner buys Yes

A modest but positive sharp-wallet signal: this bettor has won 80% of 15 resolved trades and is buying Yes at 84¢ despite the market already pricing it as likely.

This bettor has won 80% of resolved trades and is up $594 lifetime.
They bought $1,022 of Yes at 84¢, adding conviction despite already-high odds.
The market is reasonably liquid, so the main signal is the wallet’s track record rather than trade size.

$1,022 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 80%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 58556096, $330,728
0xaacb...90cb — Outcome 58556096, $20,001 (70% win rate)
0x0042...321e — Outcome 58556096, $14,962 (52% win rate)
0xd109...6fa0 — Outcome 58556096, $13,283 (80% win rate)
0x1682...26ca — Outcome 58556096, $9,800 (71% win rate)
0x473e...06bb — Outcome 58556096, $8,029
0x819f...f3e7 — Outcome 58556096, $7,341
0xc62d...74fc — Outcome 58556096, $6,670 (83% win rate)
0x3c59...1766 — Outcome 58556096, $4,935 (73% win rate)
0xe32b...626e — Outcome 58556096, $4,605

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

ResolvedWhich company has best AI model end of July?$3,520 tracked3 signalsTechAI

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Notable Trades