Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?
This Polymarket tracks whether Anthropic will own the AI model ranked third on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at the time the leaderboard is checked on April 30, 2026. Resolution is based on the "Text Arena | Overall" score column with style control off, using the company behind the model holding the third-highest arena score. Traders use this market to gauge Anthropic’s odds against rival AI labs in the race for top model rankings.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $20,180.
Categories: Tech, Big Tech, AI, Rewards 20, 4.5, 50
Notable Trades
3-wallet AI thesis cluster
Three wallets piled $20k into Yes during a massive volume spike and sharp weekly move, suggesting coordinated conviction behind Anthropic holding the #3 spot.
- Three wallets bought the same side within minutes, putting in $20.2k total.
- The market's volume suddenly jumped about 296x normal, and price is up 24 points this week.
- One wallet alone bought $17.6k at 72¢, a very concentrated bet in a market with only $7.8k of liquidity.
$20,180 on Yes
Top Holders
- 0xc74a...f01b — No, $35,054
- 0x0042...321e — Yes, $27,576 (39% win rate)
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $12,500
- 0x9aeb...2729 — Yes, $6,587 (66% win rate)
- 0xb8ad...ff58 — Yes, $4,562
- 0xa7d2...f954 — No, $4,145
- 0x28b2...eb4f — Yes, $3,889 (66% win rate)
- 0x2b9d...adc0 — Yes, $1,597 (51% win rate)
- 0xf2aa...21fb — No, $1,500
- 0xd905...ad7c — Yes, $1,257
