Part of: Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by June 30?
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company’s public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company’s primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company’s total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
3 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,816.
Categories: Finance, Privates, llm, Dario Amodei, Claude, AI, Big Tech, Tech, anthropic, Anthropic IPO
Notable Trades
13-wallet funded cluster
High-severity 13-wallet funded cluster plus a profitable, experienced wallet buying Yes in a thin market makes this worth surfacing despite modest size.
- This wallet is profitable over a large sample, up about $39.7K across 222 resolved bets.
- Thirteen wallets share the same funder, suggesting this may be part of a coordinated thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- The buy was large for this quiet market, roughly half of recent daily volume and a big chunk of available liquidity.
$1,283 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 62%
83% winner buying upside
Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 83% resolved win rate and $138.7k profit is effectively buying Yes on a thin Anthropic valuation market.
- This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $138.7k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 30 events with the same 83% win rate.
- The trade effectively buys Yes at 32¢ in a thin market, over 200% of recent 24h volume.
$1,365 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 85%
5-wallet cluster buys NO
A 5-wallet funded cluster is taking the No side in a very quiet market, with this wallet flipping from a prior Yes position into No.
- Five wallets tied to the same funder have been active here, suggesting one coordinated view.
- This trade is larger than the market’s recent daily volume, adding weight in a quiet order book.
- The wallet previously held Yes but has now flipped to No, signaling a changed view.
$1,169 on No | Wallet win rate: 65%
Top Holders
- 0x2f63...f247 — No, $10,169 (85% win rate)
- 0x5b75...433b — No, $408 (52% win rate)
- 0xc66b...02aa — No, $389
- 0x3517...fe47 — No, $308
- 0x3f23...27cb — No, $300
- 0x3233...f37e — No, $278
- 0x3da6...9ac4 — No, $215
- 0x4ed1...dc95 — No, $154
- 0x3a1e...5bb5 — No, $141
- 0x64a7...2133 — No, $100
Related Theses
Spain scores four plus
Covers 1 related market
Colombia not ahead at halftime
Covers 1 related market
WTI climbs but stays contained
Covers 4 related markets
B8 wins Map 2
Covers 1 related market
Anthropic hits $2T only
Covers 3 related markets
NRG beats BBL convincingly
Covers 2 related markets
Morocco not ahead at halftime
Covers 1 related market
Netherlands wins on June 20
Covers 1 related market
MIBR beats B8 convincingly
Covers 2 related markets
Spirit beats Team Falcons
Covers 1 related market
