Part of: World Cup: Nation To Reach Quarterfinals
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
This prediction market tracks whether Argentina will reach the quarterfinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The market resolves Yes if Argentina advances to that stage, and No if they are eliminated before the quarterfinals; PolySpotter is currently tracking $2,009 in smart money activity and 1 signal, with odds updating live on the market page.
10 smart money signals detected, totaling $59,399.
Categories: Soccer, 2026 FIFA World Cup, Sports, world cup, FIFA World Cup, Tournament Futures, Team Props
Notable Trades
89% winner backing favorite
A high-win-rate wallet with 17 wins in 19 resolved positions bought $2.0k of Argentina Yes, though its prior resolved dollar volume is small.
- This bettor has won 17 of 19 resolved positions, a strong record even after accounting for odds.
- They bought $2,009 of Argentina Yes at 83¢ as the market has moved up 14 points this week.
- The wallet’s past profits are small, so the main signal is accuracy rather than a long high-stakes record.
$2,009 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 89%
76% serial cross-market winner
Sharp serial cross-market trader with a 76% long-run win rate is effectively backing Argentina Yes by selling No, though this appears to be closing a prior No position rather than a fresh large entry.
- This bettor has won 76% of 1,210 resolved bets and is up $313K lifetime.
- They are a major cross-market trader, with $2.4M deployed across 128 markets and 74 events.
- Selling No at 16¢ is equivalent to backing Yes at 84¢, after Argentina’s odds rose 13.5 points this week.
$1,184 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%
92% winner fading favorite
Elite profitable serial cross-market trader is fading Argentina reaching the quarterfinals, converting the SELL Yes into a BUY No at 18¢.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades and is up $2.7M lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 822 markets and $8.4M in flagged flow.
- Selling Yes at 82¢ converts to buying No at 18¢, a contrarian bet against a heavily favored outcome.
$5,131 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
95% win-rate serial bettor
Surfaced because a highly proven serial cross-market bettor with a 95% resolved win rate and $265k lifetime profit bought $12.6k of Yes.
- This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades and is up $265k lifetime.
- They have bet across 339 markets with nearly $5M invested, suggesting a deep repeatable edge.
- Argentina Yes has already moved up 24 points this week, and this sharp bought another $12.6k at 84¢.
$12,600 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
86% cross-market sharp
Sharp serial cross-market bettor with an 86% resolved win rate and +$310k lifetime P&L bought nearly $9.6k of Yes at 83¢.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $310k lifetime.
- They have traded across 447 related markets with $3.6M total volume, suggesting a repeatable edge.
- They bought $9.6k of Yes as Argentina's odds have climbed 23 points over the past week.
$9,554 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
New wallet, 6-0 start
A 16-day-old repeat bettor with a 6-0 resolved record and positive P&L is buying Argentina Yes amid strong recent upward price momentum.
- This new wallet is 6-for-6 on resolved bets and is already up $448.
- It has now had $6.6k in flagged bets across 7 positions, suggesting repeat conviction rather than a one-off trade.
- Argentina Yes has moved from 58¢ to 80¢ over the past week, and this bettor is still buying into the move.
$2,836 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
New wallet, 6-0 start
A 16-day-old repeat bettor with a 6-0 resolved record and positive P&L is buying Argentina Yes amid strong recent upward price momentum.
- This new wallet is 6-for-6 on resolved bets and is already up $448.
- It has now had $6.6k in flagged bets across 7 positions, suggesting repeat conviction rather than a one-off trade.
- Argentina Yes has moved from 58¢ to 80¢ over the past week, and this bettor is still buying into the move.
$1,130 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
81% winner buying Yes
Sharp sports bettor with an 81% resolved win rate and $120k lifetime profit made a $14k Yes bet on a relatively quiet market.
- This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $120,718 lifetime.
- They put $14,043 on Yes at 72¢, a large single bet relative to recent activity.
- Argentina’s Yes price is already up 11.5 points this week, and this trade follows that momentum.
$14,043 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
87% winner buys Yes
Proven sharp wallet with an 87% win rate and $659k lifetime profit bought $6.3k of Argentina Yes, backed by a long serial cross-market track record.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $659,723 lifetime.
- They have a long cross-market track record: 177 events, 204 markets, and $570,056 traded.
- The $6,270 buy was over 4x the market’s recent 24h volume, showing strong conviction at 54¢.
$6,270 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
87% winner buying thin market
Sharp profitable wallet with an 87% record and extensive cross-market history bought a large Yes position worth over 3x the market's 24h volume.
- This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $659K lifetime.
- The $4.6K buy was more than 3x this market’s 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quiet market.
- This wallet is a serial cross-market trader with 202 markets tracked and the same 87% win record.
$4,643 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 84%
Top Holders
- 0x5fd8...ce32 — Outcome 23072293, $21,702 (89% win rate)
- 0xe8c2...3048 — Outcome 23072293, $11,000 (91% win rate)
- 0x29b7...4108 — Outcome 23072293, $10,000 (66% win rate)
- 0x8333...eb93 — Outcome 23072293, $9,450
- 0x15a6...bf5d — Outcome 23072293, $7,657 (47% win rate)
- 0x6a32...0086 — Outcome 23072293, $7,380 (83% win rate)
- 0xda3a...381f — Outcome 23072293, $6,574 (55% win rate)
- 0xeb74...997c — Outcome 23072293, $3,361 (45% win rate)
- 0x6c43...fb9b — Outcome 23072293, $3,300 (50% win rate)
- 0x05f0...2469 — Outcome 23072293, $3,000
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