What does the Bitcoin $100,000 by 2026 Polymarket market predict?

It predicts whether BTC/USDT on Binance will trade with a 1-minute candle High price of at least $100,000 at any point from November 24, 2025 at 14:00 ET through December 31, 2026 at 23:59 ET.

When does this Bitcoin prediction market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve after the end of the observation window, with a listed resolution date of January 1, 2027 at 05:00 UTC, unless the Yes condition is met earlier.

What price source is used to decide if Bitcoin hits $100,000?

Resolution is based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data, specifically the final High price shown for the candle.

Can the market resolve Yes before December 31, 2026?

Yes. If any qualifying Binance 1-minute BTC/USDT candle has a final High price equal to or above $100,000 during the market window, it immediately resolves to Yes.

What smart money activity is being tracked for this market?

PolySpotter tracks $5,465 in smart money activity across 1 signal for this market, with recent alerts showing both BTC upside buying and BTC No positioning from profitable or whale traders.

Part of: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026. It resolves Yes if any Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle between Nov. 24, 2025 and Dec. 31, 2026 has a final High price of $100,000 or more; otherwise it resolves No after the deadline.

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

17 smart money signals detected, totaling $45,538.

Categories: Bitcoin, Yearly, Hit Price, Crypto Prices, Crypto

Notable Trades

Fresh whale buying BTC NO

Very new wallet is making repeat five-figure-sized crypto bets, including a $5.5k NO buy that was large versus recent market activity.

This wallet is under 4 hours old and has already had $11.3k in flagged large bets.
This $5.5k buy was about 72% of the market’s recent 24h volume, showing concentrated conviction.
They bought NO at 85¢, betting Bitcoin does not touch $100k by the end of 2026.

$5,465 on No

Profitable crypto thesis bettor

Sharp profitable wallet with an 80% record is extending a cross-market Bitcoin thesis by buying No at 83¢.

This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $17.3k lifetime.
They have positioned across 3 related Bitcoin markets, suggesting a broader bearish thesis.
Entry at 83¢ implies they see limited chance of Bitcoin reaching $100k by end-2026.

$1,879 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Profitable crypto thesis bettor

Proven profitable wallet with an 80% record is building a cross-market Bitcoin thesis, buying No on BTC reaching $100k by end-2026.

This bettor has won 80% of 154 resolved trades and is up $17.1k lifetime.
They have placed $11.9k across 3 related Bitcoin markets, suggesting a broader bearish thesis.
Entry at 82¢ implies a conservative bet, but the wallet’s track record makes it worth following.

$8,127 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Profitable BTC ladder seller

A large, profitable wallet is expressing a consistent bearish Bitcoin thesis across five related markets, though this individual trade is modest and on a liquid market.

This wallet is up about $850k lifetime and has traded $37.8M across resolved markets.
It has put $171k across five related Bitcoin markets, showing a broader bearish thesis rather than a one-off trade.
Selling Yes at 18¢ is equivalent to buying No at 82¢ on Bitcoin reaching $100k by the deadline.

$1,800 on No | Wallet win rate: 51%

87% winner buying BTC Yes

Sharp wallet override: an 87% lifetime winner with +$179k P&L bought Yes on BTC reaching $100k despite the modest $1k size.

This bettor wins 87% of resolved trades and is up $179k lifetime.
Bought Yes at 20¢, implying they see better odds than the market’s current 18%.
They have $2.2k positioned across 2 related Bitcoin markets.

$1,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 87%

80% winner crypto thesis

Profitable 80% winner is extending a cross-market Bitcoin thesis by buying No at 84¢ despite only a moderate alert score.

This bettor wins 80% of resolved trades and is up $17,057 lifetime.
They have positioned across 3 related Bitcoin markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off bet.
Buying No at 84¢ implies confidence that Bitcoin stays below $100,000 through 2026.

$1,008 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%

Profitable cross-market BTC bear

Profitable high-volume wallet is expressing a repeated bearish BTC thesis across 5 related markets, with this trade equivalent to buying No at 82¢.

This wallet is up $831k lifetime and has traded $37.7M across resolved markets.
They have built a $165k cross-market position across 5 related Bitcoin markets.
This trade is effectively buying No at 82¢ as the Yes price has fallen 15 points over the past week.

$1,474 on No | Wallet win rate: 51%

Serial BTC No bettor

Serial cross-market crypto bettor is adding a No position across multiple related BTC target markets, though their high win rate is tempered by negative lifetime P&L.

This wallet has bet across 4 related markets with about $14k committed to the same crypto thesis.
They win 84% of resolved bets, but lifetime P&L is still negative, so this is more a thesis-follow than a proven sharp signal.
Entry at 80¢ suggests they are positioning for Bitcoin to stay below $100k through 2026.

$1,233 on No | Wallet win rate: 84%

77% winner betting BTC No

Proven profitable wallet with 77% win rate is taking a fresh No position as part of a broader cross-market Bitcoin thesis.

This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $57K lifetime.
They have put $13.9K across 3 related Bitcoin markets, showing a broader bearish thesis.
Entry at 79¢ suggests they see Bitcoin failing to hit $100K by end-2026 as likely.

$3,426 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

80% winner fading BTC

Surface due to sharp-wallet override: this profitable 80% winner is adding a cross-market Bitcoin thesis despite only a moderate correlated-market signal.

This bettor has won 80% of 148 resolved bets and is up $15.4k lifetime.
They have $4.4k across two related Bitcoin markets, pointing to a broader bearish BTC thesis.
Bought No at 69¢, implying they think the market underprices Bitcoin staying below $100k through 2026.

$1,932 on No | Wallet win rate: 80%