Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026 on Polymarket?

This market is asking whether BTC trades at or above $90,000 on Binance BTC/USDT before the end of December 31, 2026 ET. The live Polymarket price reflects traders’ current implied odds for that outcome.

How does this Bitcoin $90K prediction market resolve?

The market resolves to Yes if any Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 23:59 ET has a final High price equal to or greater than $90,000. If that never happens, it resolves to No.

What price source is used for the BTC $90,000 market?

The official resolution source is Binance, specifically BTC/USDT High prices on the 1-minute chart at Binance.com. Other exchanges or spot indexes do not determine the outcome unless they match the Binance data.

When is the Bitcoin $90K by 2026 market settled?

The market can resolve immediately to Yes if BTC hits the target before the deadline. If it does not, the market is scheduled to resolve after December 31, 2026, with the listed resolution time on January 1, 2027 UTC.

What smart money activity is PolySpotter tracking for this market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $3,291 in smart money exposure and 1 smart money signal for this market, including recent alerts from profitable Bitcoin and crypto prediction market traders.

Part of: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?

This Polymarket market predicts whether Bitcoin will reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026. It resolves Yes if any Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle has a final High price of $90,000 or more before the deadline; otherwise it resolves No after the market closes on January 1, 2027 UTC. PolySpotter is tracking $3,291 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this BTC price target market.

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

32 smart money signals detected, totaling $106,709.

Categories: Bitcoin, Yearly, Hit Price, Crypto Prices, Crypto

Notable Trades

Profitable crypto cross-market bettor

Profitable wallet with an 81% resolved-bet win rate is building a cross-market BTC upside position, converting this SELL No into a BUY Yes at 19¢.

This bettor has won 81% of 194 resolved bets and is up $28K lifetime.
They have placed $18.7K across 3 related Bitcoin markets, suggesting a broader BTC upside thesis.
Selling No at 81¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 19¢, a long-shot entry on Bitcoin touching $90K by end-2026.

$3,291 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 81%

Serial 93% cross-market bettor

Serial cross-market trader with a huge 93% resolved win record is effectively buying Yes on BTC reaching $90k by end-2026, though lifetime ROI is modest.

This bettor has won 93% of 1,281 resolved trades and is profitable lifetime.
They are effectively buying Yes at 20¢ with a $7.5k position.
The trade is large versus recent activity, equal to about two-thirds of the market’s 24h volume.

$7,478 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 93%

77% winner backs BTC breakout

Profitable 77% wallet with positive P&L made a $21.3k effective BUY Yes bet on BTC reaching $90k by end-2026, and current odds are below their entry.

This bettor wins 77% of resolved trades and is up $9.5k lifetime.
They effectively bought Yes with $21.3k, averaging about 29¢ entry.
Current Yes odds are around 20¢, cheaper than where this profitable wallet entered.

$21,260 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%

Profitable 83% crypto bettor

Surfaced because a profitable 83% win-rate wallet is taking a fresh $3,000 No position, despite the alert itself being only a modest two-market cross-market signal.

This bettor has won 83% of 36 resolved trades and is up $1,858 lifetime.
They bought $3,000 of No at 75¢, betting Bitcoin does not touch $90,000 by the end of 2026.
The wallet has $4,206 positioned across two related Bitcoin markets, suggesting a broader bearish view.

$3,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

81% winner fades Bitcoin rally

Sharp 81% lifetime winner is adding a $10k No bet while holding a broader $99k cross-market thesis against Bitcoin reaching higher targets by end-2026.

This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $33k lifetime across 182 markets.
They have a broader $99k position across 5 related Bitcoin markets, suggesting a deliberate crypto thesis.
The $10k entry was larger than recent market activity and bought No at 66¢.

$10,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Profitable BTC ladder bettor

Profitable high-volume wallet is rebuilding a Yes position as part of a $198k five-market Bitcoin thesis, despite this individual trade being modest in a liquid market.

This wallet is up about $954k lifetime across $38.4M traded.
They have $198k spread across 5 related Bitcoin markets, suggesting a broader directional thesis.
This is a fresh re-entry into Yes at 28¢ after previously closing a much higher-priced position.

$2,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 51%

Profitable BTC whale re-entering YES

A highly profitable whale is effectively buying Yes at 27¢ while carrying a $201k cross-market Bitcoin thesis, making this more notable than a simple low-liquidity trade.

This wallet is up about $954k lifetime across $38.4M traded.
They have a $201k thesis across 5 related Bitcoin markets, not just this one bet.
Selling No at 73¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 27¢ after the market fell 29% this week.

$6,301 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 51%

Profitable whale bearish across BTC

Profitable high-volume wallet is expressing a bearish Bitcoin thesis across five related markets, with $197k of cross-market exposure despite only a modest trade size here.

This high-volume bettor is up $953k lifetime across $38.4M traded.
They have placed about $197k across 5 related Bitcoin markets, all pointing to a broader bearish view.
This is a fresh flip to No after closing a prior Yes position, with the market down sharply over the past week.

$1,731 on No | Wallet win rate: 51%

Profitable BTC bear thesis

A highly profitable, high-volume wallet is taking a bearish BTC level view across five related markets, with nearly $197k in cross-market positioning and recent price momentum supporting the trade.

This bettor is up about $850k lifetime across more than $37M traded.
They have positioned nearly $197k across 5 related Bitcoin target markets.
Buying No at 73¢ follows a sharp weekly move against Yes, with this market down 24 points over the past week.

$1,512 on No | Wallet win rate: 51%

Profitable BTC thesis trader

A profitable high-volume wallet is building a cross-market bearish Bitcoin-threshold thesis, including a fresh No buy here after previously closing a Yes position.

This wallet is up about $850K lifetime and has traded over $37M on Polymarket.
They have placed about $149K across 5 related Bitcoin markets, suggesting a broader bearish thesis.
They flipped from a prior Yes position into No here, buying at 72¢ as Bitcoin odds weakened sharply this week.

$2,901 on No | Wallet win rate: 51%