Part of: Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC

Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $46,130.

Categories: Sports, Games, Soccer, FA Cup

Notable Trades

Cross-market football flow

High-volume pre-match flow and a $86k cross-market event thesis make this effectively pro-draw move worth surfacing despite the trade also closing a prior No position.

This wallet has positioned across 3 markets in the same match, totaling about $86k in event exposure.
Draw odds have moved up 8 points in the last day as volume spiked over 3,600x versus the historical average.
Selling No at 71¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 29¢, a pro-draw position before kickoff.

$1,343 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Profitable cluster buying No

High-conviction one-sided flow into No, led by profitable wallets including a 92% winner and a $2.4M lifetime-profit whale, despite the price having since moved against their entries.

Four wallets put $44.8K on No, with most of the size coming from a bettor up $2.4M lifetime.
One wallet in the cluster wins 92% of resolved bets and is up $119K across 1,379 markets.
The market saw a huge pre-event volume spike, and this cluster accounted for a large share of recent activity.

$44,787 on No

Top Holders

0x83d9...651b — Outcome 10442966, $25,076 (59% win rate)
0x893b...b1b4 — Outcome 10442966, $5,384 (20% win rate)
0x4946...4004 — Outcome 10442966, $3,333 (56% win rate)
0xb184...b6c6 — Outcome 10442966, $2,722 (77% win rate)
0xf5d1...cdc9 — Outcome 10442966, $2,500 (60% win rate)
0x3bea...f95a — Outcome 10442966, $2,187 (56% win rate)
0x17d6...f1e2 — Outcome 10442966, $2,000 (91% win rate)
0xb416...4588 — Outcome 10442966, $2,000 (91% win rate)
0xd760...f7f5 — Outcome 10442966, $2,000 (82% win rate)
0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 28633857, $1,654

Related Theses

Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?

ResolvedChelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC$46,130 tracked2 signalsSportsGamesSoccerFA Cup

In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 16, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.