Part of: Best AI model on June 20?

Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,000.

Categories: AI, Tech

Notable Trades

Fresh wallet, thin-market bet

A 3-day-old wallet made a $2,000 Yes bet in a thin market, more than 24h volume, though the bettor has only a minimal track record.

  • A brand-new wallet put $2,000 on Yes, about 171% of this market’s 24h volume.
  • The market is thin, with only $1,846 in liquidity, so this is a meaningful conviction bet.
  • Entry at 89¢ shows the bettor is paying up for a high-confidence outcome near the June 20 resolution.

$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $4,151
  2. 0x76aa...c4f4 Yes, $2,236 (100% win rate)
  3. 0x5a21...9318 Yes, $1,100 (46% win rate)
  4. 0xa7d2...f954 Yes, $523
  5. 0x6d08...4868 No, $352
  6. 0x5007...df2e Yes, $259
  7. 0x0074...0767 Yes, $170
  8. 0x2d48...678c No, $168
  9. 0x8a52...d74c Yes, $142
  10. 0xe7fe...24e5 Yes, $131

Related Theses

AI giants IPO before 2027

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OpenAI IPO by September 2026

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Gold stays rangebound in June

Covers 3 related markets

Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?

5dBest AI model on June 20?$2,000 tracked1 signalAITech
Yes
92¢
No
8¢

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Price History — “Yes
94¢
75¢
55¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?

1h ago

$2,000 on Yes at 89¢

89¢92¢3¢

Related Theses