Part of: Best AI model on May 30? (Style Control Off)

Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?

This market asks whether claude-opus-4-6-thinking will be the top-ranked AI model on the Chatbot Arena Text Arena Overall leaderboard. It resolves based on the Rank column at lmarena.ai with style control off when checked at 12:00 PM ET on May 30, 2026. PolySpotter is tracking the live Polymarket odds plus $1,289 in smart money activity from 1 signal.

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,289.

Categories: AI, Tech

Notable Trades

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Profitable high-volume cross-market trader flipped into Yes on a thin AI leaderboard market, with price already moving from 77% to 82%.

  • This bettor has 1,331 resolved trades and is up $73.7K lifetime.
  • They bought Yes at 77¢ in a thin market, and it has already moved to 82¢.
  • The wallet previously closed a No position here, so this looks like a fresh flip into Yes.

$1,289 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $4,999
  2. 0x56e3...81cc Yes, $1,681 (72% win rate)
  3. 0x9aeb...2729 Yes, $1,242 (68% win rate)
  4. 0x241f...e15a Yes, $857 (68% win rate)
  5. 0x5a21...9318 Yes, $799 (60% win rate)
  6. 0x8594...7eed Yes, $671
  7. 0x5028...91c5 No, $613
  8. 0x0380...073d No, $494 (68% win rate)
  9. 0x1abc...45e7 Yes, $487
  10. 0x09e6...24a1 Yes, $447 (36% win rate)

Related Theses

Iran peace deal imminent

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Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?

ResolvedBest AI model on May 30? (Style Control Off)$1,289 tracked1 signalAITech
Yes
92¢
No
9¢

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Price History — “Yes
94¢
64¢
35¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?

1d ago

$1,289 on Yes at 77¢

77¢92¢15¢

Related Theses