Part of: Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?

This prediction market asks whether the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) will award a Millennium Prize or officially declare one of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems solved by December 31, 2026. The supplied metadata does not include live Yes/No odds; PolySpotter reports $8,153 in tracked smart money and one signal, including a recent cluster exit from No.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise officially declares any of these problems solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that one of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI. A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that a problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $8,153.

Categories: Culture, Science

Notable Trades

17-wallet cluster exits No

A 17-wallet funded cluster is exiting No in a thin window, but this individual trade appears to be profit-taking rather than fresh conviction.

  • Seventeen linked wallets share a funder, creating an unusually concentrated signal around this market.
  • This wallet sold No at 87¢ after holding it from an 86¢ average, so the move may reflect profit-taking rather than a new bet.
  • The equivalent Yes entry is about 13¢, while Yes has already risen 5% over the past week.

$8,153 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 53%

Top Holders

  1. 0xfadc...e474 Yes, $50,000
  2. 0x36c8...53a9 Yes, $16,789
  3. 0x7131...29cc No, $13,982 (74% win rate)
  4. 0xc6dd...4b9f No, $10,000 (70% win rate)
  5. 0x6bab...1292 No, $10,000 (57% win rate)
  6. 0x608e...d69a Yes, $7,361
  7. 0x49b6...170c No, $7,040 (60% win rate)
  8. 0x67ac...edf1 No, $6,466 (65% win rate)
  9. 0x020b...132e Yes, $6,120
  10. 0xd031...46b1 No, $5,633

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Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?

Yes
4¢
No
96¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise officially declares any of these problems solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that one of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI. A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that a problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.

Price History — “No
98¢
90¢
81¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?

3d ago

$8,153 on Yes at 13¢

13¢4¢9¢

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