What does this crude oil prediction market measure?

It measures whether the official CME settlement price for the active-month, front-month NYMEX crude oil (CL) futures contract reaches $175 or higher on any trading day before the end of June 2026.

How does this Polymarket resolve to Yes?

The market resolves to Yes if, at least once between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026, the CME settlement price for the active-month crude oil futures contract is equal to or above $175.

What happens if crude oil trades above $175 intraday but does not settle there?

An intraday spike alone is not enough. Resolution is based on the official CME settlement price, so crude oil must settle at $175 or higher for the active-month contract.

When does the market end?

This market resolves at the end of June 2026, with the listed resolution date of June 30, 2026. If crude never records a qualifying CME settlement by then, the outcome is No.

Why are traders following this oil market on Polymarket?

This market offers a simple way to express a view on whether oil prices could make a major rally by mid-2026. It can reflect expectations around geopolitics, supply shocks, OPEC policy, global demand, and broader macro conditions.

Part of: Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of June?

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?

This Polymarket tracks whether the official CME settlement price for active-month NYMEX crude oil (CL) futures reaches $175 or higher on any trading day before the end of June 2026. The market resolves Yes if front-month crude settles at or above $175 at least once by June 30, 2026; otherwise it resolves No. Traders watching oil prediction market odds are using this contract to gauge the chances of an extreme upside move in crude prices.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Crude Oil (CL) futures is equal to or above the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.

9 smart money signals detected, totaling $26,695.

Categories: Commodities, NYMEX Crude Oil Futures, Oil

Notable Trades

91% win-rate macro bettor

A high-performing wallet with a 91% win rate is making a directional cross-market bet on an oil price event, and this sell converts into a buy on Yes around 13¢.

This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up about $171k lifetime
They are betting across 2 related oil markets, which suggests a broader event view rather than a one-off trade
Selling No at 87¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 13¢, a cheap convex bet on a major oil spike

$1,744 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%

86% win-rate oil longshot

A wallet with an 86% win rate and $333k realized profit is taking a fresh directional position via buying the long-shot oil spike outcome at 16¢, which is notable despite the modest signal score.

This bettor wins 86% of resolved trades and is up $333k lifetime.
The trade effectively buys Yes at 16¢, a cheap entry if they see a sharp oil spike before June 2026.
The wallet is also betting related markets in the same event, suggesting a broader oil thesis rather than a one-off punt.

$3,376 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

91% win-rate oil bettor

A bettor with a 91% win rate is taking a directional oil view across related markets, and this trade effectively buys Yes at 15¢ in a reasonably active market.

This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up about $170k lifetime.
They are betting the same oil thesis across 2 related markets with $32k total tracked flow.
This trade is effectively a buy on Yes at 15¢, suggesting they see the current 14% odds as too low.

$1,700 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%

91% win-rate bettor

A high-win-rate trader with a 91% record is adding a cross-market thesis here by effectively buying Yes at 15¢, making this worth surfacing despite only one signal.

This bettor wins 91% of their resolved trades and is up about $170k lifetime
They effectively bought Yes at 15¢ by selling No at 85¢, a low-price entry on a long-dated oil spike market
This came from a cross-market thesis across 2 related markets with over $30k tracked in the event

$2,550 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%

89% win-rate oil thesis

A highly profitable 89% win-rate bettor with nearly 1,000 resolved markets is expressing a cross-market oil thesis here by effectively buying Yes at 13¢.

This bettor wins 89% of resolved markets and is up $1.55M lifetime.
The trade is a SELL No at 87¢, which is the same as buying Yes at 13¢.
They've placed $10.9k across 3 related oil markets, showing a broader event thesis rather than a one-off bet.

$7,569 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

89% winner buys long shot

A highly profitable wallet with an 89% win rate bought the long-shot Yes side at 10¢ via selling No, making this a small but notable cross-market thesis trade worth watching despite the modest alert score.

This bettor wins 89% of their trades and is up $1.58M lifetime.
They effectively bought Yes at 10¢ by selling No at 90¢, a cheap entry on a high-upside outcome.
The trade is part of a 2-market crude oil thesis, suggesting a broader view rather than a random punt.

$1,003 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

85% winner buying long-shot Yes

A proven profitable wallet with an 85% win rate is taking a fresh cross-market bullish oil tail-risk position by effectively buying Yes at 10¢.

This bettor wins 85% of resolved trades and is up $331k across 73 settled markets
The trade effectively buys Yes at 10¢ by selling No at 90¢, a cheap tail-risk entry on a serious macro market
They are betting across 2 related oil markets, suggesting a broader thesis rather than a one-off punt

$1,800 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%

91% win-rate oil bettor

A bettor with a 91% win rate is taking a directional cross-market oil view by effectively buying Yes at 14¢, which is notable despite the modest size.

This bettor wins 91% of resolved trades and is up $151k lifetime
The trade is effectively a BUY Yes at 14¢ after selling No at 86¢
They have been betting across 2 related oil markets, pointing to a broader thesis

$1,720 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?

A seasoned cross-market trader with 182 resolved bets and a 64% win rate is taking a fresh directional shot on a low-probability oil spike by effectively buying Yes at 11¢.

This wallet has 182 resolved bets with a 64% win rate and $32k profit
They trade related markets repeatedly — 102 markets across 46 events suggests a real macro process
Selling No at 89¢ is the same as buying Yes at 11¢, a cheap entry on a tail-risk oil move

$5,233 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%