Part of: Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
This prediction market asks whether Delcy Rodríguez will de facto hold and exercise Venezuela’s primary executive authority at the end of 2026. It resolves on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, based on effective control of the state rather than a person’s formal title; live odds are available on the market page.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $4,020.
Categories: Venezuela, Trump, Politics, Head of state, maduro, Rewards 20, 4.5, 50
Notable Trades
Serial cross-market whale
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to a Yes position in a relatively quiet political market, with the trade already moving from 88¢ to 92¢.
- This trader has a huge history across 83 events and is up about $1.7M lifetime.
- They are adding to an existing Yes position, now about $8.6K invested at an 88¢ average entry.
- The buy was large for this quiet market, equal to 57% of the last 24 hours of volume.
$1,213 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Serial cross-market whale
A highly profitable serial cross-market trader is adding to a Yes position in a relatively quiet political market, with the trade already moving from 88¢ to 92¢.
- This trader has a huge history across 83 events and is up about $1.7M lifetime.
- They are adding to an existing Yes position, now about $8.6K invested at an 88¢ average entry.
- The buy was large for this quiet market, equal to 57% of the last 24 hours of volume.
$2,807 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 90%
Top Holders
- 0x5d2f...4adb — No, $7,059 (61% win rate)
- 0xed10...d2e5 — Yes, $5,120 (90% win rate)
- 0x0dde...94c3 — Yes, $3,464 (87% win rate)
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $2,761
- 0x6e26...5198 — No, $1,182
- 0xecf5...b7af — No, $1,171
- 0x72a2...7b65 — Yes, $954 (80% win rate)
- 0x1ee9...197f — Yes, $700 (64% win rate)
- 0xf72c...eeb7 — Yes, $669
- 0xb8ad...ff58 — Yes, $300
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