Part of: Durable Goods Orders MoM - May 2026
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May?
This prediction market asks whether U.S. durable goods orders will rise between 2% and 4% month over month in May 2026, based on the seasonally adjusted Advance Report from the U.S. Census Bureau. It resolves after the Census Bureau publishes the May 2026 durable goods data, with resolution expected on June 25, 2026. PolySpotter currently tracks $3,717 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market.
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,717.
Categories: Economy, Growth, Goods, rewards 200, 4.5, 20
Notable Trades
Thin-market macro conviction
A profitable wallet made a $3.7k No bet that overwhelmed a nearly inactive macro market and also appears positioned across related durable-goods brackets.
- A $3.7k No buy dwarfed this quiet market, with only about $10 of recent volume and $1.1k total volume.
- The wallet is up $78.7k lifetime and is also active across 3 related durable-goods markets.
- The bettor paid about 79¢ for No, signaling strong confidence that the 2%-4% bracket will miss.
$3,717 on No | Wallet win rate: 39%
Top Holders
- 0xa58d...b9b8 — No, $2,206 (39% win rate)
- 0x8454...331a — Yes, $1,500 (92% win rate)
- 0xc8ab...6418 — Yes, $574 (47% win rate)
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $216
- 0x52eb...67ac — Yes, $201
- 0xc602...7fc1 — Yes, $113 (39% win rate)
- 0x7e80...631b — No, $99
- 0x5968...3fc4 — No, $85
- 0xa3e2...fdf8 — Yes, $71
- 0x7df0...0dfe — No, $71
Related Theses
Tread FDV stays below $40M
Covers 4 related markets
Durable goods outside zero to six
Covers 3 related markets
