Part of: Durable Goods Orders MoM - May 2026
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 4% and 6% in May?
This prediction market asks whether U.S. durable goods orders will increase between 4% and 6% month over month in May 2026, based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s Advance Report. It resolves on June 25, 2026, using the seasonally adjusted new orders figure, with $1,133 in smart money tracked and 1 smart money signal so far.
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,133.
Categories: Economy, Growth, Goods, rewards 200, 4.5, 20
Notable Trades
Quiet-market macro whale
A single wallet bought a large No position in a very thin macro-data market, taking over most of the available liquidity and already moving with the market from 83¢ to 93¢.
- This bettor put $1.1K into a market with only about $1.5K total volume, making the trade unusually large for the venue.
- They bought No at 83¢ and the market now prices No around 93¢, suggesting the move was quickly validated.
- The market is thin with a wide 8¢ spread, so a focused bet here signals strong conviction despite the wallet’s mixed win record.
$1,133 on No | Wallet win rate: 39%
Top Holders
- 0xa58d...b9b8 — No, $1,190 (39% win rate)
- 0x6f67...102c — Yes, $579
- 0xf33e...0ab8 — Yes, $200
- 0xa3e2...fdf8 — Yes, $101
- 0x7e80...631b — Yes, $101
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $95
- 0xc602...7fc1 — Yes, $80 (39% win rate)
- 0x9eda...6e19 — Yes, $60
- 0xfc92...27c9 — Yes, $50
- 0xad53...ef24 — Yes, $49
Related Theses
Tread FDV stays below $80M
Covers 3 related markets
