This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $313k lifetime. They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 70 events and 122 markets. Selling Yes at 21¢ is equivalent to buying No at 79¢ after Yes collapsed from the 79–89¢ range.

Three wallets all bought No, pushing the price from 53¢ to about 80¢ in minutes. One bettor has traded 33 related event clusters and is up $26k across 559 resolved bets. This is a broad World Cup positioning move, with $24k spread across 6 related markets.

Part of: World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages

Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

4 smart money signals detected, totaling $11,701.

Categories: FIFA World Cup, Sports, 2026 FIFA World Cup, Soccer, Team Props, Tournament Futures

Notable Trades

76% sharp backs No

Sharp high-volume cross-market trader with a 76% resolved win rate is effectively buying Ecuador No after a major Yes price breakdown.

This bettor wins 76% of resolved trades and is up $313k lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader, active across 70 events and 122 markets.
Selling Yes at 21¢ is equivalent to buying No at 79¢ after Yes collapsed from the 79–89¢ range.

$2,535 on No | Wallet win rate: 77%

Coordinated No surge

Three wallets bought Ecuador No in a coordinated move that drove the price sharply higher, led by a profitable serial cross-market trader.

Three wallets all bought No, pushing the price from 53¢ to about 80¢ in minutes.
One bettor has traded 33 related event clusters and is up $26k across 559 resolved bets.
This is a broad World Cup positioning move, with $24k spread across 6 related markets.

$4,391 on No

Profitable serial cross-market bettor

Experienced cross-market bettor with 559 resolved trades and positive lifetime P&L bought Ecuador No before the price moved from 53¢ to 58¢.

This bettor has 559 resolved trades, wins 63% of them, and is up $26K lifetime.
The $1.4K No buy was nearly 3x the market’s recent daily volume when flagged.
They entered No at 53¢, and the market has already moved to 58¢ in their favor.

$1,431 on No | Wallet win rate: 67%

Profitable sports whale buying Yes

Highly profitable sports bettor with a massive track record is buying Yes on a thin Ecuador advancement market, with the trade nearly 3x the market’s 24h volume.

This bettor is up $2.5M lifetime across more than 3,000 resolved markets.
The $3.3K buy is almost 3x this market’s entire 24h volume, showing real conviction in a quiet market.
Entry at 89¢ suggests they view Ecuador advancing as very likely despite limited market activity.

$3,344 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

Top Holders

0x0343...f2dc — Outcome 10034213, $6,494 (92% win rate)
0xc4b2...9a9b — Outcome 10034213, $3,125 (85% win rate)
0x1341...0853 — Outcome 10034213, $2,750 (85% win rate)
0x51fd...4272 — Outcome 10034213, $2,151
0xfd97...0ec5 — Outcome 10034213, $2,043 (64% win rate)
0xb3cf...0ebd — Outcome 10034213, $1,825 (81% win rate)
0x37c2...198c — Outcome 10034213, $1,800 (100% win rate)
0xda3a...381f — Outcome 10034213, $1,649 (55% win rate)
0xc2e9...e288 — Outcome 10034213, $1,515 (74% win rate)
0xbb1c...f754 — Outcome 10034213, $1,256

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Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

ResolvedWorld Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages$11,701 tracked4 signalsFIFA World CupSports2026 FIFA World CupSoccerTeam PropsTournament Futures

This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed nation advances to the Knockout Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the Knockout Stage (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup competition is cancelled, postponed after July 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.