Will Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?

This Polymarket asks whether Eli Lilly and Co. will report non-GAAP EPS above $7.00 in its next quarterly earnings release, currently expected on April 30, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if Eli Lilly posts more than $7.00, and No if it reports $7.00 or lower. Traders use this market to follow real-time prediction market odds around LLY earnings expectations versus Wall Street consensus.

As of market creation, Eli Lilly and Co is estimated to release earnings on April 30, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Eli Lilly and Co’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $7.0 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eli Lilly and Co reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $7.00 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Eli Lilly and Co releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,990.

Categories: Equities, LLY, Finance, Earnings

Notable Trades

95% hitter in thin earnings market

A serial cross-market trader with an exceptional 95% hit rate just made a market-moving buy in a relatively thin earnings market, even though the edge is less impressive because they usually buy very high-probability outcomes.

  • This bettor wins 95% of 1,106 resolved trades across 29 events, showing a strong pattern of finding the right side
  • Their $1,990 buy was about 70% of recent volume in a market with only $2.4k of liquidity, so the position stands out
  • They bought Yes at 90¢ and the market is now 94¢ after a 44-point weekly run, backing continued momentum into earnings

$1,990 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%

Top Holders

  1. 0xe11a...c40b Yes, $4,137 (81% win rate)
  2. 0xf9f2...5cba No, $2,562 (37% win rate)
  3. 0xe617...f251 Yes, $2,212 (95% win rate)
  4. 0x9e88...301c No, $1,700 (46% win rate)
  5. 0xd555...e28a No, $1,518
  6. 0xb0f6...451c No, $428
  7. 0xcfce...80c7 Yes, $126
  8. 0xdf97...4653 No, $100
  9. 0xc13d...6928 No, $86
  10. 0x9eae...98a5 Yes, $80

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Will Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?

5d$1,990 tracked1 signalEquitiesHide From NewLLYFinanceEarnings
Yes
91¢
No
10¢

As of market creation, Eli Lilly and Co is estimated to release earnings on April 30, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Eli Lilly and Co’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $7.0 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eli Lilly and Co reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $7.00 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Eli Lilly and Co releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents; or, if not published there, according to the GAAP EPS provided by SeekingAlpha. If no GAAP EPS number is available from either source at that time, the market will resolve to “No.” (For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless it is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.) If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced non-GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for non-GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: If multiple versions of non-GAAP EPS are published, the market will resolve according to the primary headline non-GAAP EPS number, which is typically presented on a diluted basis. If diluted is not published, then basic non-GAAP EPS will qualify. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Price History — “Yes
95¢
72¢
49¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?

3h ago

$1,990 on Yes at 90¢

90¢91¢1¢

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