Part of: Elon Musk # tweets July 14 - July 21, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 14 12:00 PM ET to July 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,143.

Categories: Culture, Politics, Tweet Markets

Notable Trades

16-wallet funded No cluster

A 16-wallet funded cluster is backing No, with a sharp volume surge and price move, although this wallet is adding to an existing position rather than making a fresh bet.

This wallet is part of a 16-wallet cluster sharing the same funder, a strong coordinated-conviction signal.
No rose 20.69% amid a 174x historical volume spike, suggesting substantial recent positioning.
The bettor is adding to an existing No position at 90¢; its 64% win rate and $42,000 profit provide supportive but not elite track-record evidence.

$1,800 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%

Proven sharp scaling into Yes

A proven bettor with a 79% win rate and $44,924 profit is adding to an existing Yes position at 33%, indicating meaningful conviction despite the modest alert score.

This bettor has won 79% of 28 resolved positions and is up $44,924.
They are adding $1,343 to an existing $4,453 Yes position at 33%, rather than merely opening a small trade.
The 33¢ entry implies they view the 140–159 tweet range as substantially more likely than the market’s 32% estimate.

$1,343 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 77%