This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades across 695 bets and is up $42.8K lifetime. They are a serial cross-market trader with $4.17M flagged across 356 markets. They bought No at 79¢; the market is now much lower, offering a cheaper entry than the sharp paid.

Part of: Elon Musk # tweets June 9 - June 16, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $3,645.

Categories: Culture, Politics, Tweet Markets

Notable Trades

13-wallet linked No bet

A profitable wallet from a 13-wallet linked cluster bought No on a near-expiry Elon tweet-count market, suggesting coordinated conviction despite recent adverse price movement.

A 13-wallet funded cluster is behind this direction, with linked activity seen across prior runs.
This wallet is up about $39.7K lifetime across 217 resolved bets, though its win rate is not elite.
The bet is on a countable market close to resolution, where active tracking can create an edge.

$2,370 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

95% serial sharp

Surfaced because this is a proven serial cross-market bettor with a 95% resolved win rate and positive lifetime P&L, despite the trade being modest in size.

This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades across 695 bets and is up $42.8K lifetime.
They are a serial cross-market trader with $4.17M flagged across 356 markets.
They bought No at 79¢; the market is now much lower, offering a cheaper entry than the sharp paid.

$1,275 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%

Top Holders

0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 70790248, $239,833
0xa576...8678 — Outcome 12392739, $36,800
0x02b4...7092 — Outcome 12392739, $15,593
0x77c8...bc8c — Outcome 12392739, $14,359 (36% win rate)
0xac4a...bf1e — Outcome 12392739, $10,831
0x01b8...82c1 — Outcome 12392739, $10,000 (70% win rate)
0xd713...af79 — Outcome 12392739, $10,000
0x6864...294b — Outcome 12392739, $9,900
0xaca2...b9a1 — Outcome 12392739, $6,736 (41% win rate)
0xe5bd...339a — Outcome 12392739, $6,078

Related Theses

No Iran peace deal

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Musk avoids 180-199 tweets

Covers 1 related market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

ResolvedElon Musk # tweets June 9 - June 16, 2026?$3,645 tracked2 signalsCulturePoliticsTweet Markets

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 9 12:00 PM ET to June 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.