Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?
This Polymarket asks whether Elon Musk will make between 280 and 299 qualifying posts on X from April 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET to April 14, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts count toward the total, while most replies do not. The market resolves on April 14, 2026 based on the tracked number of qualifying posts during that window.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 7 12:00 PM ET to April 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,920.
Categories: Culture, Politics, Tweet Markets, Rewards Automations 200 4.5 50
Notable Trades
Profitable event specialist
A profitable sharp wallet with a 76% win rate and strong edge is making a fresh cross-market bet within the Elon tweet-count event, which is notable despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 76% of their trades and is up about $167k across 45 resolved markets
- They have been positioning across 3 related Elon tweet-count markets, which suggests a deliberate event view rather than a one-off punt
- Bought Yes at 14¢, a low-priced entry that implies they think this outcome is meaningfully more likely than the market does
$1,453 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
92% win-rate contrarian
A proven 92% win-rate serial cross-market trader is fading a 91% favorite here, which is notable despite the modest size because the wallet has a long profitable history across 186 markets.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades across 186 markets and has a long record of event-driven trading
- They sold No at 88¢, which converts to buying Yes at 12¢ — a clear contrarian bet against a 91% market price
- The bet is small relative to market volume, but the wallet’s track record makes this position worth watching
$1,467 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $386,660
- 0xacbc...7cc3 — Yes, $41,361 (76% win rate)
- 0x02b4...7092 — Yes, $30,000
- 0x525e...0b73 — Yes, $26,858
- 0x689a...779e — Yes, $21,556 (17% win rate)
- 0x77c8...bc8c — Yes, $15,344 (29% win rate)
- 0x3f0c...3fd7 — Yes, $14,175 (50% win rate)
- 0x70be...044d — Yes, $14,000
- 0xd8c4...848d — Yes, $13,000
- 0xafca...08e4 — No, $12,981
