Part of: Elon Musk # tweets August 3 - August 5, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?

Q: Serial sharp scaling into No

This bettor wins 82% of 847 resolved trades and is up $186,830 lifetime. The $1,605 No bet represented 56% of the market’s 24-hour volume, showing meaningful conviction in a thin market. This is a serial cross-market trader active across 30 events and 37 markets, with a reported 22% edge over implied odds.

Q: Serial sharp scaling into No

This bettor wins 82% of 847 resolved trades and is up $186,830 lifetime. The $1,605 No bet represented 56% of the market’s 24-hour volume, showing meaningful conviction in a thin market. This is a serial cross-market trader active across 30 events and 37 markets, with a reported 22% edge over implied odds.

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 3 12:00 PM ET to August 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,826.

Categories: Tweet Markets, Culture, Politics

Notable Trades

Serial sharp scaling into No

A highly experienced bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial measured edge made a large, concentrated No bet while repeatedly trading across related events.

This bettor wins 82% of 847 resolved trades and is up $186,830 lifetime.
The $1,605 No bet represented 56% of the market’s 24-hour volume, showing meaningful conviction in a thin market.
This is a serial cross-market trader active across 30 events and 37 markets, with a reported 22% edge over implied odds.

$1,221 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Serial sharp scaling into No

A highly experienced bettor with an 82% win rate and substantial measured edge made a large, concentrated No bet while repeatedly trading across related events.

This bettor wins 82% of 847 resolved trades and is up $186,830 lifetime.
The $1,605 No bet represented 56% of the market’s 24-hour volume, showing meaningful conviction in a thin market.
This is a serial cross-market trader active across 30 events and 37 markets, with a reported 22% edge over implied odds.

$1,605 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%