Part of: World Cup: Nation To Reach Round of 16
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
11 smart money signals detected, totaling $95,081.
Categories: Soccer, Sports, FIFA World Cup, world cup, 2026 FIFA World Cup, Team Props, Tournament Futures
Notable Trades
Sharp bettor fading favorite
Sharp wallet with an 86% resolved-bet win rate is fading England at high odds by selling Yes, equivalent to buying No at 12¢.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved bets and is up $3,740 lifetime.
- They are effectively buying No at 12¢, betting England is overpriced at 88%.
- The market is liquid with a tight 2¢ spread, so this looks more like a deliberate contrarian position than a thin-market blip.
$1,033 on No | Wallet win rate: 87%
Proven World Cup sharp
Sharp profitable wallet with a 79% record is adding to a large cross-market World Cup thesis on England reaching the Round of 16.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $44,879 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 194 events and a 79% record.
- This is part of a $42,650 position across 6 markets in the same World Cup event.
$2,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
Sharp cross-market football bettor
Sharp wallet with a 79% win rate and strong lifetime profit is buying England Yes while also trading multiple related World Cup markets.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $44,879 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 193 events and a 79% win rate.
- They bought $4,300 of Yes around 79¢, adding conviction despite the market sitting near 80%.
$15,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
Sharp cross-market football bettor
Sharp wallet with a 79% win rate and strong lifetime profit is buying England Yes while also trading multiple related World Cup markets.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $44,879 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 193 events and a 79% win rate.
- They bought $4,300 of Yes around 79¢, adding conviction despite the market sitting near 80%.
$30,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
Sharp cross-market football bettor
Sharp wallet with a 79% win rate and strong lifetime profit is buying England Yes while also trading multiple related World Cup markets.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved trades and is up $44,879 lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader with activity across 193 events and a 79% win rate.
- They bought $4,300 of Yes around 79¢, adding conviction despite the market sitting near 80%.
$4,300 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
98% winner buys contrarian NO
A highly profitable sharp wallet with a 98% resolved win rate bought England No at 17¢, making this a notable contrarian copy-trade despite modest size.
- This bettor has won 65 of 66 resolved positions and is up about $192k lifetime.
- They are taking the contrarian side at 17¢ against an 82% market favorite.
- Entry at 17¢ implies a roughly 5.9x payout if England fails to reach the Round of 16.
$1,343 on No | Wallet win rate: 91%
20-hour repeat whale
A 20-hour-old repeat large bettor is putting $5.1k on Yes, with early profit and size equal to most of the market’s daily volume.
- A brand-new wallet has already made $12.9k in flagged bets within its first day.
- Its only resolved bet won, leaving it up $2.3k on $10.1k invested so far.
- This $5.1k buy was about two-thirds of the market’s 24h volume, entered at 83¢.
$5,101 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 100%
New wallet World Cup whale
A brand-new wallet is repeatedly making sizeable World Cup advancement bets, including a $2.5k buy that dwarfed this market’s recent volume, though the position has moved against them since entry.
- This 22-hour-old wallet has already placed $11.5k across 3 related World Cup markets.
- The $2.5k buy was more than double the market’s recent 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quiet market.
- They paid 87¢ for Yes, well above the current 78¢ odds, so the market is now offering a cheaper entry than they took.
$2,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
New wallet sweeping thin futures
A 21-hour-old wallet is repeatedly deploying five-figure size into quiet World Cup futures markets, including a $5.5k Yes buy that was more than 2x this market’s daily volume.
- A 21-hour-old wallet has already placed $11.5k across flagged positions, suggesting fast and concentrated conviction.
- This $5.5k buy was more than 2x the market’s 24h volume, so it stands out in a quiet order book.
- The bettor paid 87–88¢ for Yes while the market is now around 75¢, giving a better entry than the original trade.
$5,500 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
New whale on favorites
A 21-hour-old wallet has made repeat large bets, including $10k on England Yes in a quiet long-dated World Cup market, though its track record is still very limited.
- A brand-new wallet put $10k on the same side, more than 2x this market’s 24h volume.
- This is the wallet’s 6th large flagged position in under a day, suggesting a deliberate sports thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- The bettor paid an average of 86¢, while the market is now around 75¢, giving copy traders a cheaper entry than the whale got.
$10,000 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 66%
Top Holders
- 0x5fd8...ce32 — Outcome 16602357, $15,000 (89% win rate)
- 0xe8c2...3048 — Outcome 16602357, $10,245 (91% win rate)
- 0xda3a...381f — Outcome 16602357, $6,856 (53% win rate)
- 0x5a21...9318 — Outcome 16602357, $4,825 (60% win rate)
- 0x0c01...797d — Outcome 16602357, $3,380
- 0x5213...6a35 — Outcome 16602357, $3,342 (74% win rate)
- 0x9807...157b — Outcome 16602357, $3,333
- 0xc691...389c — Outcome 16602357, $2,812
- 0xeaac...d71d — Outcome 16602357, $2,666 (82% win rate)
- 0xa63c...27a4 — Outcome 16602357, $2,261
Related Theses
All four miss knockouts
Covers 4 related markets
Favorites advance, Spain Netherlands miss
Covers 7 related markets
Argentina France reach quarterfinals
Covers 5 related markets
Sinner beats Zverev
Covers 1 related market
Kilian Feldbausch Wins Qualifier
Covers 1 related market
Switzerland Canada exceed 8.5 corners
Covers 1 related market
Noskova beats Muchova at Wimbledon
Covers 1 related market
Spain wins by multiple goals
Covers 1 related market
France wins a high-scoring match
Covers 2 related markets
Colombia DR Congo corners surge
Covers 1 related market
