Part of: France vs. England
Will England win on 2026-07-18?
8 smart money signals detected, totaling $921,745.
Categories: Sports, Games, Soccer, FIFA World Cup
Notable Trades
34-wallet cluster backs England
A large 34-wallet Yes cluster includes several highly profitable bettors and coincided with a 42-point price surge, though opposing positions make the signal less clean.
- Thirty-four wallets bought Yes for nearly $195,000 as the market moved from roughly 24% to 66%.
- Several participants have exceptional records, including 95% and 96% win rates across more than 100 resolved positions.
- The flow is not perfectly one-sided because some wallets also hold or sold No, so the apparent conviction should be treated cautiously.
$194,702 on Yes
Serial sharp bettor sells Yes
A proven, profitable serial cross-market bettor is exiting a substantial Yes position, creating a defensible bearish No signal despite the trade appearing partly to be position management.
- This bettor wins 76% of trades and is up $540,761 across 33 resolved positions.
- The $3,055 Yes sale converts to a No position around 79¢, signaling bearish conviction even as Yes recently moved up 17%.
- The trade is smaller than the market’s deep liquidity and may partly be routine exit management from an $80,000 prior position.
$3,055 on No | Wallet win rate: 76%
Proven sharp bettor buys No
A highly profitable bettor with an 88% win rate and 2,119 resolved positions bought No amid an extreme pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor wins 88% of 2,119 resolved bets and is up $3.69 million.
- They bought $2,339 of No at 77¢, aligning with a sharp, high-conviction position.
- Market volume is running 393.8 times its historical average, adding support to the trade signal.
$2,339 on No | Wallet win rate: 89%
Whale scaling into No amid volume spike
A major bettor added $624,000 to an existing No position amid a 393x abnormal volume surge, making this a notable conviction trade despite only a moderate historical win rate.
- The trader added $624,000 to No, bringing their total position above $1.6 million.
- The market saw a 393x spike versus its historical trading volume, suggesting unusually concentrated activity.
- This serial cross-market trader has 3,891 resolved bets and is up $710,844, though the 58% win rate is only moderately compelling.
$623,995 on No | Wallet win rate: 57%
Profitable serial sports bettor
A highly profitable serial cross-market bettor bought No, with a major pre-event volume spike adding corroboration despite modest trade size.
- This bettor has won 61% across 20,023 resolved markets and is up $3.7M lifetime.
- They are a major cross-market trader, with $3.75M flagged across 784 markets in 522 events.
- Market activity is heating up, with an 80x pre-event volume spike before this match.
$1,944 on No | Wallet win rate: 62%
89% winner buying NO
Proven sharp sports bettor with an 89% win rate and $1.07M profit bought No at 74¢ amid a major pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor wins 89% of resolved trades and is up $1.07M lifetime.
- They have traded 301 events with the same strong record, suggesting a repeatable sports edge.
- Market volume spiked 310x, and they entered at 74¢ on England not winning.
$4,440 on No | Wallet win rate: 88%
94% winner buying No
A highly profitable sports/cross-market bettor with a 94% resolved win rate is buying No, supported by a sharp pre-event volume spike.
- This bettor has won 94% of 807 resolved positions and is up about $402K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 141 events with the same 94% win rate.
- They bought No at 74¢ as this market saw a 310x pre-event volume spike.
$1,332 on No | Wallet win rate: 94%
Sharp wallets stack up No
A $90,000 No-biased cluster includes a 93% win-rate bettor and multiple proven profitable wallets, despite conflicting Yes-side activity and recent price movement against No.
- Twelve wallets bought No for nearly $90,000, creating a concentrated directional bet.
- One bettor has won 93% of 15 resolved trades, while another has an 81% win rate across 959 bets.
- The market moved toward Yes despite the No buying, making the cluster’s conviction especially notable but less straightforward to copy.
$89,938 on No
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 34385162, $1,091,179
- 0xfe78...0319 — Outcome 34385162, $189,097 (65% win rate)
- 0x6501...1220 — Outcome 34385162, $144,375 (98% win rate)
- 0x3f3a...e8fd — Outcome 34385162, $57,833 (71% win rate)
- 0x4337...8882 — Outcome 34385162, $50,000 (74% win rate)
- 0x4572...5e86 — Outcome 34385162, $45,480 (76% win rate)
- 0xc6b1...78fd — Outcome 34385162, $40,000 (93% win rate)
- 0x2d6a...8add — Outcome 34385162, $39,908 (59% win rate)
- 0xcf73...0215 — Outcome 34385162, $37,244 (58% win rate)
- 0xd776...ffeb — Outcome 34385162, $25,401 (48% win rate)
Related Theses
England advances in high-scoring match
Covers 3 related markets
