Part of: World Cup: Nation To Reach Round of 16
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
16 smart money signals detected, totaling $88,400.
Categories: Soccer, Sports, FIFA World Cup, world cup, 2026 FIFA World Cup, Team Props, Tournament Futures
Notable Trades
86% win-rate serial trader
Sharp, highly profitable serial cross-market trader bought France Yes despite the market already pricing it as a heavy favorite.
- This bettor wins 86% of resolved bets and is up $315K lifetime.
- They are a very active cross-market trader, with $3.65M deployed across 346 events.
- Buying at 89¢ suggests they still see value in France advancing despite the market already pricing it as likely.
$2,055 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 86%
Sharp cross-market contrarian
Sharp profitable bettor with an 82% record is taking a contrarian No position as part of a broader 7-market World Cup thesis.
- This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $90k lifetime.
- They have placed $40k across 7 related World Cup markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
- Selling France Yes at 89¢ is equivalent to buying No at 11¢, a long-shot fade of a heavy favorite.
$1,214 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%
New profitable whale
A 1-day-old wallet is repeatedly placing large bets and is already profitable, now adding $5.3k on France Yes at 90¢.
- This 1-day-old wallet has already placed 3 large flagged positions and is up $2,281.
- They put $5.3k on Yes at 90¢, showing conviction despite the short remaining upside.
- The wallet is 3-for-3 on resolved bets so far, though all wins came around 89¢ favorites.
$5,328 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%
95% win-rate serial bettor
Surfacing because a highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 95% resolved win rate bought $6.1k of France Yes at 88¢.
- This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades and is up $265k lifetime.
- They have traded 336 markets across 280 events, with nearly $5M deployed.
- A $6.1k buy at 88¢ shows conviction that France reaches the Round of 16.
$10,370 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
90% serial cross-market bettor
Sharp 90% lifetime wallet with serial cross-market success is buying France Yes, with linked-wallet clustering adding corroboration despite the high 89¢ entry.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $60.5K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 46 events with over $2.0M deployed.
- The wallet is part of a 17-wallet funded cluster, adding support to the France Yes position.
$10,789 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
Sharp bettor fading favorite
Surfaced under the sharp-wallet override: this bettor has won 9 of 10 resolved bets with positive lifetime P&L and is effectively taking the No side at 12¢.
- This bettor has won 90% of resolved bets and is up $20K lifetime.
- They sold Yes at 88¢, which is equivalent to buying No at 12¢.
- The market is liquid, so the main signal is the wallet’s strong track record rather than trade size.
$2,708 on No | Wallet win rate: 92%
90% serial cross-market bettor
Sharp 90% lifetime wallet with serial cross-market success is buying France Yes, with linked-wallet clustering adding corroboration despite the high 89¢ entry.
- This bettor wins 90% of resolved trades and is up $60.5K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 46 events with over $2.0M deployed.
- The wallet is part of a 17-wallet funded cluster, adding support to the France Yes position.
$3,552 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 88%
Serial cross-market whale
A serial cross-market bettor made a $22k Yes buy that drove a major volume spike, though the wallet’s negative lifetime P&L makes this more a conviction-flow signal than a proven-sharp bet.
- A serial event bettor put $22k on Yes across 3 quick buys at 88–89¢.
- This wallet has traded 91 markets across 84 events with a 71% resolved win rate.
- The bet was about half of the market’s 24h volume and came during a huge volume spike.
$22,083 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 75%
95% win-rate serial bettor
Surfacing because a highly profitable serial cross-market bettor with a 95% resolved win rate bought $6.1k of France Yes at 88¢.
- This bettor wins 95% of resolved trades and is up $265k lifetime.
- They have traded 336 markets across 280 events, with nearly $5M deployed.
- A $6.1k buy at 88¢ shows conviction that France reaches the Round of 16.
$6,144 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 94%
Profitable serial sports sharp
Sharp profitable wallet with a 79% win rate is buying France Yes and has a long serial cross-market history across 194 events.
- This bettor wins 79% of resolved positions and is up $44,879 lifetime.
- They have traded across 194 events, suggesting a repeatable sports-market process rather than a one-off bet.
- They bought $2,150 of Yes around 82¢ while the market has moved up to 85%.
$2,150 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 83%
Top Holders
- 0x9770...0ff5 — Outcome 11041139, $54,936 (63% win rate)
- 0xd604...cb5f — Outcome 11041139, $36,484 (69% win rate)
- 0x9106...afcb — Outcome 11041139, $24,715 (70% win rate)
- 0xda3a...381f — Outcome 11041139, $23,635 (53% win rate)
- 0x4aef...9337 — Outcome 11041139, $12,000 (71% win rate)
- 0xb3cf...0ebd — Outcome 11041139, $10,323 (81% win rate)
- 0x51fd...4272 — Outcome 11041139, $7,866
- 0x8333...eb93 — Outcome 11041139, $7,573
- 0x5213...6a35 — Outcome 11041139, $5,015 (74% win rate)
- 0xa8fe...3ee3 — Outcome 11041139, $4,860 (60% win rate)
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