What is this May 2026 global temperature prediction market about?

This market predicts whether the reported global land-ocean temperature anomaly for May 2026 will be less than 1.10°C. The result is based on the official Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for that month.

When does the market resolve?

The market is scheduled to resolve once the May 2026 Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index figure is released, with the listed resolution date of June 10, 2026.

What data source determines the outcome?

The primary source is the table titled “GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius,” as referenced in the market description. Once the May 2026 anomaly falls within a named bracket, the market can resolve immediately, even if the figure is later revised.

What would make this market resolve Yes?

The market resolves Yes if the official May 2026 global temperature anomaly is reported as less than 1.10°C. If it is 1.10°C or higher, it resolves No.

How much smart money is being tracked on this market?

PolySpotter is currently tracking $5,185 in smart money exposure and 1 smart money signal, including activity from a profitable climate thesis bettor.

Part of: May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026?

This Polymarket market asks whether the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 will report a temperature anomaly of less than 1.10°C. It resolves after the official May 2026 value is released, expected around June 10, 2026, using the named NASA GISTEMP-style table specified in the market rules. PolySpotter currently tracks $5,185 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal on this climate prediction market.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $5,185.

Categories: Weather, Global Temp, Science

Notable Trades

Profitable climate thesis bettor

A profitable, experienced wallet made an unusually large No bet on a very quiet climate market and appears to be building a cross-market temperature thesis.

This bettor has won 64% of 166 resolved bets and is up about $49k lifetime.
The $5.2k No buy was over 20x this market’s 24h volume, a large conviction bet in a quiet order book.
They have put $8.3k across 3 related temperature markets, suggesting a broader view rather than a one-off trade.

$5,185 on No | Wallet win rate: 64%