Part of: August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in August 2026?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,036.

Categories: Science, Weather, Global Temp

Notable Trades

Serial trader adds to Yes position

A serial cross-market trader with a profitable long-term record added a sizable Yes position in a thin market, though the existing position and modest edge make this a moderate-conviction signal.

  • This trader has participated across 27 events and is up $65,231 lifetime with 199 resolved bets.
  • The $1,036 purchase was 170% of the market’s 24-hour volume, creating an unusually large one-sided signal in a thin market.
  • The trader is adding to an existing Yes position at 84¢ as the market has risen 34% over the past week.

$1,036 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 71%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 89441768, $1,981
  2. 0xad53...ef24 Outcome 89441768, $40

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Fed holds rates steady

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2026 will be hottest on record

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Global warming misses August 2026 range

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Global temperatures exceed 1.29°C

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June warming hits 1.15-1.19°C

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NYC AQI will stay below 100

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July warming hits 1.20-1.24°C

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July 2026 will be hottest on record

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Fed holds rates steady in July 2026

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May warming hits 1.10-1.14C

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Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in August 2026?

ResolvedAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)$1,036 tracked1 signalScienceWeatherGlobal Temp

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Price History — “Yes
101¢
99¢
97¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in August 2026?

32d ago

$1,036 on Yes at 84¢

Related Theses