Part of: August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in August 2026?

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,036.

Categories: Science, Weather, Global Temp

Notable Trades

Serial trader adds to Yes position

A serial cross-market trader with a profitable long-term record added a sizable Yes position in a thin market, though the existing position and modest edge make this a moderate-conviction signal.

This trader has participated across 27 events and is up $65,231 lifetime with 199 resolved bets.
The $1,036 purchase was 170% of the market’s 24-hour volume, creating an unusually large one-sided signal in a thin market.
The trader is adding to an existing Yes position at 84¢ as the market has risen 34% over the past week.

$1,036 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%