Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,000.

Categories: Big Tech, Tech, Rewards 50, 4.5, 100, AI

Notable Trades

82% winner buying NO

A profitable 82% win-rate wallet made a $2k BUY No bet, but the signal is based on a small track record and no corroborating cluster or timing signals.

  • This bettor wins 82% of resolved trades and is up $912 on $7.3k invested.
  • They put $2k on No at 84¢, a larger-than-usual bet for this wallet.
  • The trade follows momentum against Google, with Yes odds down 8 points today.

$2,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 82%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $127,626
  2. 0xaa85...4d17 Yes, $25,059 (90% win rate)
  3. 0x7365...64da Yes, $11,191 (50% win rate)
  4. 0xb120...f2ff Yes, $9,455
  5. 0x2b9d...adc0 Yes, $8,779 (52% win rate)
  6. 0xb89f...1c44 Yes, $8,310 (48% win rate)
  7. 0x3437...f8f3 Yes, $8,015 (67% win rate)
  8. 0x5999...ae94 Yes, $7,172 (78% win rate)
  9. 0x9648...6825 Yes, $5,694 (70% win rate)
  10. 0x5ccf...79d7 Yes, $5,519 (68% win rate)

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

29d$2,000 tracked1 signalBig TechTechRewards 50, 4.5, 100AI
Yes
17¢
No
83¢

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Price History — “No
88¢
76¢
64¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

2h ago

$2,000 on No at 84¢

84¢83¢1¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | PolySpotter