Part of: Which company has the best Math AI model end of June?
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?
This prediction market asks whether a Google-owned AI model will hold the top rank on the Chatbot Arena Text Arena Math leaderboard at the end of June 2026. It resolves using the Rank column on the Math leaderboard, checked on June 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, with PolySpotter tracking live odds and $2,859 in smart money activity so far.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,859.
Categories: Rewards 20, 4.5, 50, Math, AI, Tech
Notable Trades
Sharp AI bettor on thin market
Sharp wallet with a 78% resolved-bet win rate made oversized bets across thin AI leaderboard markets, including a Google Yes position.
- This bettor wins 78% of resolved trades and is up about $23.9k lifetime.
- The bet is huge for this market, totaling more than 10x its 24h volume.
- They are also positioning across related AI leaderboard markets, suggesting a broader thesis.
$2,859 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 78%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — No, $5,897
- 0x5999...ae94 — Yes, $2,636 (78% win rate)
- 0x09e6...24a1 — Yes, $2,593 (36% win rate)
- 0x5e10...1186 — No, $1,149
- 0xb89f...1c44 — Yes, $854 (47% win rate)
- 0xb263...6484 — No, $719
- 0x4734...60b1 — Yes, $473
- 0x06b6...eba6 — Yes, $400 (89% win rate)
- 0x28b2...eb4f — Yes, $356 (66% win rate)
- 0xfcf2...7279 — Yes, $260 (37% win rate)
Related Theses
Google wins math AI race
Covers 2 related markets
Anthropic overtakes Google AI
Covers 2 related markets
