Part of: What will happen before GTA VI?

Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?

This prediction market asks whether OpenAI will make GPT-6 available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. If neither release happens by July 31, 2026, the market resolves 50-50; PolySpotter currently tracks $3,150 in smart money and 1 signal, including a recent NO buy from a proven winner.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $3,150.

Categories: Culture, All, Politics, GTA VI

Notable Trades

Proven winner buys NO

Despite only a weak low-activity signal, this is worth surfacing because the bettor has a very large winning history and positive lifetime P&L.

  • This bettor wins 83% of resolved trades and is up $49k lifetime.
  • They put $3.15k on No in a relatively quiet 24h market.
  • Entry at 49¢ implies they see No as mispriced near even odds.

$3,150 on No | Wallet win rate: 83%

Top Holders

  1. 0x49ad...f71a No, $9,152
  2. 0x9e80...f694 No, $6,858 (83% win rate)
  3. 0x1405...9db0 Yes, $5,826
  4. 0x0bf4...fde8 Yes, $3,404
  5. 0x96e8...d240 Yes, $2,411
  6. 0x8de2...8483 Yes, $1,877 (89% win rate)
  7. 0xa0d3...639e Yes, $1,809
  8. 0xb401...df2a Yes, $1,501 (48% win rate)
  9. 0x983e...55ff No, $1,247 (100% win rate)
  10. 0x13e0...c5ca No, $1,195

Related Theses

US-Iran peace deal imminent

Covers 2 related markets

Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?

29dWhat will happen before GTA VI?$3,150 tracked1 signalCultureAllPoliticsGTA VI
Yes
51¢
No
49¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Price History — “Yes
54¢
52¢
49¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?

4d ago

$3,150 on No at 49¢

49¢49¢

Related Theses