Part of: Israel military action against Beirut on...?

Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,233.

Categories: Middle East, Israel, Geopolitics, Beirut, Lebanon, Iran, strike, Hezbollah, Israel x Iran

Notable Trades

92% win-rate geopolitics bettor

A serial cross-market trader with a 92% win rate bought Yes at 39¢ in a geopolitics market, making this a credible thesis bet worth tracking despite the modest size.

  • This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades with 501 settled bets and about $18k profit.
  • They trade heavily across related events — 179 events and 360 markets — which suggests a repeatable news-driven edge.
  • They bought Yes at 39¢ in a market with only about $5.7k liquidity, so this is a meaningful directional position in a thinner book.

$1,233 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%

Top Holders

  1. 0x1a7c...c26b Outcome 74081536, $30,000
  2. 0x4fc1...8360 Outcome 74081536, $2,872 (58% win rate)
  3. 0x5b63...11a4 Outcome 74081536, $2,610 (70% win rate)
  4. 0x9583...bd4d Outcome 74081536, $2,125
  5. 0x9952...2edb Outcome 74081536, $2,000
  6. 0xdf90...41f0 Outcome 74081536, $474
  7. 0x7c40...3d64 Outcome 74081536, $400
  8. 0x3302...79c0 Outcome 74081536, $300
  9. 0x024b...435a Outcome 74081536, $262
  10. 0x45a6...9c94 Outcome 74081536, $213

Related Theses

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

Russia enters Vozdvyzhivka by May

Covers 3 related markets

Starmer exits before June

Covers 1 related market

Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?

ResolvedIsrael military action against Beirut on...?$1,233 tracked1 signalMiddle EastIsraelGeopoliticsBeirutLebanonIranstrikeHezbollahIsrael x Iran

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut. For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Notable Trades

Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?

45d ago

$1,233 on Yes at 39¢

Related Theses