Part of: Israel military action against Beirut on...?
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,233.
Categories: Middle East, Israel, Geopolitics, Beirut, Lebanon, Iran, strike, Hezbollah, Israel x Iran
Notable Trades
92% win-rate geopolitics bettor
A serial cross-market trader with a 92% win rate bought Yes at 39¢ in a geopolitics market, making this a credible thesis bet worth tracking despite the modest size.
- This bettor wins 92% of resolved trades with 501 settled bets and about $18k profit.
- They trade heavily across related events — 179 events and 360 markets — which suggests a repeatable news-driven edge.
- They bought Yes at 39¢ in a market with only about $5.7k liquidity, so this is a meaningful directional position in a thinner book.
$1,233 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 92%
Top Holders
- 0x1a7c...c26b — Outcome 74081536, $30,000
- 0x4fc1...8360 — Outcome 74081536, $2,872 (58% win rate)
- 0x5b63...11a4 — Outcome 74081536, $2,610 (70% win rate)
- 0x9583...bd4d — Outcome 74081536, $2,125
- 0x9952...2edb — Outcome 74081536, $2,000
- 0xdf90...41f0 — Outcome 74081536, $474
- 0x7c40...3d64 — Outcome 74081536, $400
- 0x3302...79c0 — Outcome 74081536, $300
- 0x024b...435a — Outcome 74081536, $262
- 0x45a6...9c94 — Outcome 74081536, $213
Related Theses
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Starmer exits before June
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