Part of: Eurovision 2026: Top 5

Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named country finishes Eurovision 2026 as one of the top 5 highest scoring candidates. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 5 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,940.

Categories: Culture, Music, Awards, Eurovision

Notable Trades

Profitable trader flips No

Profitable high-volume Eurovision trader flipped from a prior Italy Yes position into a larger No bet, with meaningful price impact in a moderately thin market.

  • This bettor is up $38K lifetime and has traded nearly $2M, despite a low hit rate.
  • They flipped from a prior Italy Yes position into a $2.9K No buy, suggesting a changed view.
  • The No side has moved sharply higher, and this trade was large relative to the market’s $4.9K liquidity.

$2,940 on No | Wallet win rate: 25%

Top Holders

  1. 0xecb1...5da3 Yes, $5,000 (49% win rate)
  2. 0xde04...fa37 No, $4,106 (48% win rate)
  3. 0x04d7...b035 No, $3,722 (25% win rate)
  4. 0x20f7...5527 Yes, $2,000
  5. 0x8432...8360 No, $1,000 (50% win rate)
  6. 0x6135...efa0 Yes, $1,000 (51% win rate)
  7. 0x7b17...51b1 No, $990
  8. 0x82f1...3ece Yes, $758
  9. 0xbab6...50a2 No, $755 (69% win rate)
  10. 0xa5e3...4d7e No, $726 (19% win rate)

Related Theses

Australia or Greece wins Eurovision

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Italy makes Eurovision top ten

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Italy misses, Greece and Bulgaria shine

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Armenia advances in Eurovision

Covers 5 related markets

Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

ResolvedEurovision 2026: Top 5$2,940 tracked1 signalCultureMusicAwardsEurovision
Yes
20¢
No
81¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named country finishes Eurovision 2026 as one of the top 5 highest scoring candidates. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 5 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Price History — “No
83¢
71¢
59¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

3h ago

$2,940 on No at 79¢

79¢81¢2¢

Related Theses