What does this June 2026 hottest on record market predict?

It predicts whether June 2026 will rank as the single hottest June on record according to NASA’s Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index.

How are ties handled in this market?

If June 2026 ties with another year for first hottest June, it qualifies as first. The market description also notes that ties count for the bracket they tie with.

When does the market resolve?

The listed resolution date is June 30, 2026, though the final outcome depends on the relevant NASA temperature data becoming available.

Why do traders watch this climate prediction market?

Traders may watch it to gauge market expectations around global temperature records, climate trends, and how informed bettors are positioning ahead of official NASA data.

Part of: 2026 June 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Will June 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?

Q: What data source determines the outcome?

The primary resolution source is NASA GISS data, specifically the table titled “GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius” and the value under the “Jun” column.

This prediction market asks whether June 2026 will be the hottest June on record, based on NASA GISS Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data for the month of June. It resolves using the June 2026 value compared with all other recorded Junes, with ties counting for the tied rank. PolySpotter currently tracks $1,500 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 versus the data points available for all other Junes on record. Note: If June 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,500.

Categories: Global Temp, Science, Weather

Notable Trades

Profitable bettor in thin market

A highly experienced profitable wallet bought No with a bet over 4x the market's 24h volume on a very thin long-dated climate market.

This bettor has a long track record: 3,921 resolved trades and about $37.5K in lifetime profit.
The $1.5K No buy was more than 4x this market’s 24h volume, showing conviction in a quiet market.
The market is thin with only about $5.9K liquidity and a 5¢ spread, so one informed bet can matter.

$1,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 74%