Part of: 2026 June 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Will June 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?

5 smart money signals detected, totaling $13,454.

Categories: Global Temp, Science, Weather

Notable Trades

13-wallet funded cluster

A wallet tied to a 13-wallet funded cluster bought No on a thin, wide-spread climate market with recent price momentum in the same direction.

A 13-wallet funded cluster is positioned behind this trade, suggesting coordinated conviction rather than a one-off bet.
The bettor bought No at 89¢ while Yes has fallen sharply over the past week, matching recent market momentum.
The $2.5K buy is large relative to the market’s $3.4K liquidity and comes in a wide-spread order book.

$2,490 on No | Wallet win rate: 40%

13-wallet funded No cluster

A 13-wallet shared-funder cluster is taking a $5.2k No position in a thin climate market, with the trade size exceeding available liquidity and aligned with recent No momentum.

13 wallets funded by the same address are tied to this No-side position.
The $5.2k buy is larger than the market’s listed liquidity, showing strong conviction in a thin order book.
The trade follows a sharp move toward No, with Yes down 37% over the past week.

$5,158 on No | Wallet win rate: 40%

13-wallet cluster buying No

A 13-wallet shared-funder cluster is backing No in a thin climate market with a bet over 5x recent 24h volume.

13 wallets funded by the same source have been building the same No position across runs.
This buy was over 5x the market’s recent 24h volume, a strong signal in a thin order book.
Entry at 89¢ is high-confidence positioning against June 2026 being the hottest on record.

$2,609 on No | Wallet win rate: 40%

Profitable wallet backing NO

A profitable wallet made a large No bet that was nearly 5x the market's daily volume on a quiet climate market with recent momentum toward No.

This bettor is up $49k lifetime across 166 resolved markets.
The $1.7k No buy was about 4.8x the market’s 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quiet book.
Market momentum agrees with the trade: Yes odds are down 22.5 percentage points this week.

$1,697 on No | Wallet win rate: 69%

Profitable bettor in thin market

A highly experienced profitable wallet bought No with a bet over 4x the market's 24h volume on a very thin long-dated climate market.

This bettor has a long track record: 3,921 resolved trades and about $37.5K in lifetime profit.
The $1.5K No buy was more than 4x this market’s 24h volume, showing conviction in a quiet market.
The market is thin with only about $5.9K liquidity and a 5¢ spread, so one informed bet can matter.

$1,500 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%

Top Holders

0xe3f2...e1c1 — Outcome 66493079, $19,606 (85% win rate)
0x82c7...f1f8 — Outcome 66493079, $5,999
0x94c4...43ca — Outcome 66493079, $3,924 (78% win rate)
0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 97000931, $3,595
0xe24c...976f — Outcome 66493079, $53
0xfe2b...2479 — Outcome 66493079, $45
0x8c41...873f — Outcome 66493079, $40
0x9631...a38c — Outcome 66493079, $28
0x0314...2f6d — Outcome 66493079, $23
0x4916...f56f — Outcome 66493079, $18

Related Theses

Covers 2 related markets

July warming hits 1.20-1.24°C

Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

Will June 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?

Resolved2026 June 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?$13,454 tracked5 signalsGlobal TempScienceWeather

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 versus the data points available for all other Junes on record. Note: If June 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.