Part of: 2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Will May 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,634.

Categories: Global Temp, Weather, Science

Notable Trades

Profitable thin-market bettor

A profitable wallet made a market-moving Yes bet that was over 7x the market’s 24h volume in a very thin climate market.

  • This wallet is up $49k lifetime across 166 resolved bets.
  • The $2.6k Yes buy was over 7x the market’s 24h volume in a very thin order book.
  • Yes has already moved from 75¢ entry to 82¢, with the market up 52 points over the past week.

$2,634 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 69%

Top Holders

  1. 0xa5ef...2966 Outcome 21822796, $15,777
  2. 0x6f08...54d3 Outcome 21822796, $873
  3. 0x8dca...df03 Outcome 21822796, $82
  4. 0xcfd8...72dc Outcome 21822796, $64
  5. 0x2512...601f Outcome 21822796, $40
  6. 0x3dbe...a158 Outcome 21822796, $35
  7. 0x3b30...100f Outcome 21822796, $35
  8. 0x9cb3...1367 Outcome 21822796, $30
  9. 0xbe0e...d429 Outcome 21822796, $20
  10. 0x92d9...4c5e Outcome 72166162, $18

Related Theses

June warming hits 1.15-1.19°C

Covers 2 related markets

NYC AQI will stay below 100

Covers 1 related market

July warming hits 1.20-1.24°C

Covers 1 related market

Covers 2 related markets

May warming hits 1.10-1.14C

Covers 3 related markets

May 2026 ranks second hottest

Covers 2 related markets

June 2026 second hottest

Covers 2 related markets

Will May 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?

Resolved2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?$2,634 tracked1 signalGlobal TempWeatherScience

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Notable Trades

Will May 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?

63d ago

$2,634 on Yes at 75¢

Related Theses