What does the May 2026 2nd hottest on record market predict?

It predicts whether May 2026 will be ranked as the second-hottest May in the NASA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index compared with all other Mays on record.

Do ties count in this market?

Yes. If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it qualifies for the bracket it ties with under the market rules.

When does the May 2026 temperature market resolve?

The listed resolution date is June 10, 2026, after NASA’s May 2026 global temperature data is expected to be available.

What smart money activity is tracked for this market?

PolySpotter currently tracks $2,634 in smart money activity and 1 smart money signal for this market, including a recent alert from a profitable thin-market bettor.

Part of: 2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Will May 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?

Q: How will this Polymarket climate market resolve?

The market resolves using NASA GISS data from the table titled “GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius,” specifically the values in the May column.

This prediction market asks whether May 2026 will rank as the second-hottest May on record based on NASA GISS Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data. It resolves around June 10, 2026, using the May column in NASA’s official table, with ties for first, second, or third counting for the tied bracket.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,634.

Categories: Global Temp, Weather, Science

Notable Trades

Profitable thin-market bettor

A profitable wallet made a market-moving Yes bet that was over 7x the market’s 24h volume in a very thin climate market.

This wallet is up $49k lifetime across 166 resolved bets.
The $2.6k Yes buy was over 7x the market’s 24h volume in a very thin order book.
Yes has already moved from 75¢ entry to 82¢, with the market up 52 points over the past week.

$2,634 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 64%