Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,620.

Categories: Global Temp, Weather, Science

Notable Trades

81% winner buying NO

Proven high-sample wallet with an 81% resolved-bet win rate is buying NO on a relatively thin, wide-spread market, though the bet size and signal strength are moderate.

  • This bettor wins 81% of resolved trades and is up $38.5K lifetime.
  • They bought $1.6K of No in a thin market with a 6¢ spread.
  • Entry at 90¢ shows they are backing the current 88% favorite with conviction.

$1,620 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%

Top Holders

  1. 0x3a86...dea8 Yes, $15,644
  2. 0xa49b...7054 No, $8,774 (81% win rate)
  3. 0x1186...051b No, $4,774 (63% win rate)
  4. 0xe3a1...64a3 No, $1,618 (39% win rate)
  5. 0xa5ef...2966 No, $1,200
  6. 0x30a0...a458 Yes, $400
  7. 0x7495...7fcf Yes, $137
  8. 0x4e41...76a1 Yes, $103
  9. 0xad53...ef24 Yes, $50
  10. 0xf88b...0ed2 No, $50

Related Theses

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?

34d$1,620 tracked1 signalGlobal TempWeatherScience
Yes
10¢
No
90¢

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Price History — “No
92¢
81¢
71¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?

2h ago

$1,620 on No at 90¢

90¢90¢

Related Theses