Part of: "Michael" 3rd Weekend Box Office
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m?
4 smart money signals detected, totaling $13,579.
Categories: Movies, box office, Culture, Rewards 300 4.5 50
Notable Trades
Profitable box-office trader
Sharp profitable wallet made a cross-market box-office position with rapid price impact, though one trade appears to be selling Yes before buying it back higher.
- This bettor has won 70% of 61 resolved trades and is up $21.9K lifetime.
- Their trades helped move Yes up 18 percentage points in under 3 minutes.
- This is part of a $5.1K cross-market position on the same movie event.
$5,109 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable serial box-office trader
A highly active cross-market box-office trader with a long profitable record is effectively buying No on this bracket after a sharp 31-point one-day move against Yes.
- This bettor has 1,208 resolved trades, wins 67% of them, and is up about $65.9K lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 267 events with over $1.0M traded, suggesting this is a practiced strategy rather than a one-off bet.
- Selling Yes at 51¢ is equivalent to buying No at 49¢, after Yes has already fallen 31 points in the past day.
$1,184 on No | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable box-office trader
Surfaced because the wallet has a strong 70% historical record with positive P&L and made a sizeable cross-market move that rapidly shifted a thin order book, though the mixed buys/sells make the net direction unclear.
- This bettor is up $21.9K across 61 resolved trades, with a 70% historical win rate.
- They traded $6.1K across related box-office markets, suggesting an event-level thesis rather than a one-off bet.
- The market is thin, with only $1.7K liquidity and a wide 14¢ spread, so this activity moved the price quickly.
$6,109 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
Profitable serial event trader
Serial cross-market bettor with a large 1,208-bet history and positive lifetime P&L is buying Yes in a related box-office bracket despite recent price weakness.
- This bettor has a long record across 1,208 resolved bets, winning 67% and earning about $66k lifetime.
- They are a heavy cross-market trader, active across 267 events and over $1M in tracked volume.
- The entry at 51¢ is above the current 44¢ market price, suggesting they saw value before the recent drop.
$1,178 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 68%
Top Holders
- 0xa5ef...2966 — Outcome 95575682, $32,975
- 0xcfa9...0a14 — Outcome 95575682, $1,000
- 0xf2f5...137e — Outcome 95575682, $345
- 0x1cdd...e595 — Outcome 95575682, $275
- 0x33f8...c5e4 — Outcome 95575682, $200 (49% win rate)
- 0x2a31...f2f0 — Outcome 95575682, $179 (93% win rate)
- 0xd53b...fc94 — Outcome 95575682, $150
- 0xee21...3721 — Outcome 95575682, $100
- 0x8575...87fe — Outcome 95575682, $86
- 0x3d5a...4c29 — Outcome 95575682, $69
Related Theses
Iran deal lands in July
Covers 8 related markets
Claude 5 launches by April
Covers 4 related markets
