Event

"Michael" 3rd Weekend Box Office

10 signals across 2 markets · $45,360 tracked · resolves May 11, 2026

This Polymarket event tracks the domestic weekend box office performance for “Michael,” with traders pricing whether the film can beat the key $38 million threshold. PolySpotter has tracked $7,410 in smart money activity across the event, including a recent 3-wallet Yes momentum signal.

Markets (2)

  1. Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?6 signals · $31,781 tracked
  2. Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m?4 signals · $13,579 tracked

Top trades across all markets

  1. Profitable cluster fading rally

    Four profitable, high-volume box-office traders sold Yes together at 80¢ after a sharp rally and 102x volume spike, creating a coordinated No-side signal.

    $15,115Score: 12.8
  2. 3-wallet Yes momentum

    Three profitable wallets bought $7.4K of Yes and pushed a thin box-office market up 27 points, showing coordinated momentum worth tracking.

    $7,410Score: 7.8
  3. Profitable new box-office whale

    A 10-day-old wallet with early profit and repeat large-bet flags is taking a sizable, somewhat hedged position across the Michael box-office event, with the clearest copyable leg equivalent to buying Yes around 44¢.

    $4,479Wallet win rate: 40%Score: 6.5
  4. Profitable serial box-office trader

    A highly active cross-market box-office trader with a long profitable record is effectively buying No on this bracket after a sharp 31-point one-day move against Yes.

    $1,184Wallet win rate: 68%Score: 6.0
  5. Profitable serial event trader

    Serial cross-market bettor with a large 1,208-bet history and positive lifetime P&L is buying Yes in a related box-office bracket despite recent price weakness.

    $1,178Wallet win rate: 68%Score: 6.0
  6. Profitable box-office trader

    Sharp profitable wallet made a cross-market box-office position with rapid price impact, though one trade appears to be selling Yes before buying it back higher.

    $5,109Wallet win rate: 68%Score: 5.8
  7. Profitable box-office trader

    Surfaced because the wallet has a strong 70% historical record with positive P&L and made a sizeable cross-market move that rapidly shifted a thin order book, though the mixed buys/sells make the net direction unclear.

    $6,109Wallet win rate: 68%Score: 5.8
  8. Profitable cross-market bettor

    Moderately sharp, profitable wallet is adding a cross-market box office thesis and drove a quick Yes price move despite the market being down on the day.

    $1,951Wallet win rate: 68%Score: 5.8
  9. Profitable cross-market bettor

    Moderately proven profitable wallet is taking the No side on a fast-moving movie box-office market, with cross-market positioning and a 70% resolved win record.

    $1,000Wallet win rate: 68%Score: 5.8
  10. Profitable serial trader fades favorite

    Serial high-volume cross-market trader with strong lifetime profit bought No during a sharp move despite the market still pricing Yes as highly likely.

    $1,827Wallet win rate: 59%Score: 2.0

Top wallets in this event

  1. 0xb94c97b5b5$14,168 · 2 markets · 4 alerts · 68% wins
  2. 0x3c11dd1535$4,479 · 1 market · 1 alert · 40% wins
  3. 0x9aeb532729$2,362 · 1 market · 2 alerts · 68% wins
  4. 0x44c1dfebc1$1,827 · 1 market · 1 alert · 59% wins

More on this event

FAQs

What are the Polymarket odds for Michael’s weekend box office?

The market is focused on whether “Michael” will gross more than $38 million domestically for the relevant weekend box office period. PolySpotter tracks the live odds, trading activity, and smart money signals as the market updates.

What is smart money doing on the Michael box office market?

PolySpotter has tracked $7,410 in smart money activity for this event. The latest alert showed 3-wallet Yes momentum, suggesting multiple tracked wallets were buying or positioning toward the over-$38M outcome.

When does the Michael box office market resolve?

The event is expected to resolve after final domestic 3-day weekend box office figures for May 8–May 10 are available, with resolution listed for May 11, 2026. Final figures from The Numbers are used rather than studio estimates.

What source determines the final box office result?

Resolution is based on the “Daily Box Office Performance” figures on the Box Office tab of the movie’s page on The Numbers. Once the final 3-day domestic weekend total is posted, the market can resolve.