Part of: World Cup: Team to advance to Knockout Stages
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6 smart money signals detected, totaling $30,465.
Categories: FIFA World Cup, Sports, 2026 FIFA World Cup, Soccer, Team Props, Tournament Futures
Notable Trades
Known 3-wallet cluster
High clustering score from a known 3-wallet funded group plus a quiet-market bet makes this worth surfacing despite the modest dollar size.
- This wallet belongs to a 3-wallet group funded from the same source, a pattern seen in prior alerts.
- It put $1.4k on No in a quiet market, more than the detected 24h volume.
- The bettor has a modest positive record: 13 wins from 19 resolved bets and $236 profit.
$1,364 on No | Wallet win rate: 56%
High-win bettor on quiet market
A high-win-rate wallet made a fresh $8.4k equivalent BUY Yes position, more than 3x the market’s 24h volume, on a quiet World Cup futures market.
- This bettor has won 95% of resolved trades and is up about $1.5k lifetime.
- The $8.4k trade was over 3x the market’s 24h volume, showing unusual conviction in a quiet market.
- Selling No at 67¢ is equivalent to buying Yes at 33¢, close to the current ask.
$8,432 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 95%
Known 3-wallet cluster
High clustering score from a known 3-wallet funded group plus a quiet-market bet makes this worth surfacing despite the modest dollar size.
- This wallet belongs to a 3-wallet group funded from the same source, a pattern seen in prior alerts.
- It put $1.4k on No in a quiet market, more than the detected 24h volume.
- The bettor has a modest positive record: 13 wins from 19 resolved bets and $236 profit.
$1,384 on No | Wallet win rate: 56%
75% sharp fades advancement
Sharp serial cross-market bettor with a 75% win rate and $907k lifetime profit bought No on New Zealand advancing.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved bets and is up about $907k lifetime.
- They are a serial cross-market trader across 40 events with nearly $2M in flagged activity.
- The trade backs No at 69¢, slightly above the current 68¢ market price.
$3,767 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
Profitable serial sports bettor
Sharp, highly profitable serial cross-market trader bought $9.1k of No, a large size relative to recent volume.
- This bettor wins 75% of resolved trades and is up about $907k lifetime.
- They have traded 49 markets across 39 events, with nearly $2.0M in cross-market volume.
- The $9.1k No buy was about 3.7x recent 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quieter market.
$9,134 on No | Wallet win rate: 81%
95% winner buys No
Sharp wallet override: a 95% winner with positive lifetime P&L made a $6.4k No bet that dominated recent volume on a quiet long-dated World Cup market.
- This bettor has won 95% of resolved bets and is up $1.7k lifetime.
- The $6.4k No buy was more than 4x the market’s recent 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a quiet market.
- Entry at 68¢ implies they see New Zealand missing the knockout stage as underpriced.
$6,385 on No | Wallet win rate: 95%
Top Holders
- 0x5d18...4972 — Outcome 11222743, $4,116 (67% win rate)
- 0x7236...ea53 — Outcome 11222743, $3,200 (88% win rate)
- 0x6c43...fb9b — Outcome 11222743, $2,350 (50% win rate)
- 0x37c2...198c — Outcome 11222743, $1,900 (100% win rate)
- 0x40d0...4415 — Outcome 11222743, $1,894 (92% win rate)
- 0x47c7...cac7 — Outcome 11222743, $1,472 (94% win rate)
- 0xfb13...5946 — Outcome 11222743, $1,200 (94% win rate)
- 0x4e51...92bf — Outcome 11222743, $833
- 0x288a...0048 — Outcome 11222743, $800 (58% win rate)
- 0xe8c4...395d — Outcome 11222743, $662 (95% win rate)
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