Part of: Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?

This prediction market asks whether OpenAI’s private market valuation, based on Nasdaq Private Market’s NPM Price, will reach or exceed $600 billion on any qualifying date before December 31, 2026. It resolves after the period ends, with final resolution scheduled for January 1, 2027. PolySpotter currently tracks $2,446 in smart money activity on this market, including a recent signal showing a serial winner adding to the No side.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,446.

Categories: Finance, Privates, llm, Big Tech, AI, chatgpt, sam altman, OpenAI, OpenAI IPO

Notable Trades

Serial winner adding No

Serial cross-market trader with a large profitable history is adding to a No position on a relatively quiet OpenAI valuation market.

  • This bettor has won 90% of 1,526 resolved bets and is up $1.67M lifetime.
  • They are adding to an existing No position at 86¢, with the market now around 88¢.
  • This trade was large for the market, equal to about 68% of the past day’s volume.

$2,446 on No | Wallet win rate: 90%

Top Holders

  1. 0x8a4c...532b Yes, $5,178 (52% win rate)
  2. 0xed10...d2e5 No, $4,016 (90% win rate)
  3. 0x4337...8882 No, $2,133 (74% win rate)
  4. 0x5a21...9318 No, $1,655 (58% win rate)
  5. 0x8df7...36c4 Yes, $1,111 (71% win rate)
  6. 0xa8d6...d3da Yes, $923
  7. 0x97f3...0eba Yes, $588 (41% win rate)
  8. 0xc602...7fc1 Yes, $300 (43% win rate)
  9. 0x2e1c...db61 No, $284
  10. 0x0d66...79ca Yes, $274

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Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?

164dWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?$2,446 tracked1 signalFinancePrivatesllmBig TechAIchatgptsam altmanOpenAIOpenAI IPO
Yes
14¢
No
86¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

Price History — “No
93¢
89¢
84¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?

10d ago

$2,446 on No at 86¢

86¢86¢

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