Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
20 signals across 8 markets · $45,243 tracked · resolves Jan 1, 2027
This event tracks whether OpenAI’s private-market valuation reaches at least $800B by December 31, 2026, using Nasdaq Private Market’s NPM Price as the reference. PolySpotter is monitoring the Polymarket odds and smart-money activity around the $800B outcome, including recent 11-wallet funded-cluster alerts across the event.
Markets (8)
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?3 signals · $17,486 tracked
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?4 signals · $7,938 tracked
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?5 signals · $6,956 tracked
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?3 signals · $4,497 tracked
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?2 signals · $3,251 tracked
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?1 signal · $2,446 tracked
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?1 signal · $1,657 tracked
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?1 signal · $1,013 tracked
Top trades across all markets
- 14-wallet funded cluster
A 14-wallet funded cluster is taking a bearish OpenAI valuation position across multiple related markets, with this trade equivalent to buying No at 49¢.
$1,878Wallet win rate: 52%Score: 14.0 - Linked cluster fading Yes
High-scoring linked-wallet cluster with a profitable high-volume trader fading Yes near 89¢ before the market moved down to 66¢.
$1,559Wallet win rate: 52%Score: 13.0 - 11-wallet bearish valuation cluster
An 11-wallet funded cluster with a highly profitable lead wallet is taking a bearish cross-market view on OpenAI valuation milestones, and this trade has already moved in their favor.
$2,054Wallet win rate: 52%Score: 12.0 - Profitable cross-market bear
Profitable high-volume wallet is taking a cross-market bearish position on OpenAI hitting a $750B valuation, though the individual trade size is modest.
$1,704Wallet win rate: 52%Score: 11.0 - 11-wallet funded cluster
An 11-wallet funded cluster made a large Yes buy on a thin OpenAI valuation market, with the position entering around 46–50¢ before odds jumped to 88¢.
$8,743Wallet win rate: 52%Score: 11.0 - 16-wallet bearish cluster
Surface: a 16-wallet funded cluster with a profitable high-volume wallet is building a bearish OpenAI valuation thesis across related markets.
$1,296Wallet win rate: 52%Score: 11.0 - 11-wallet funded OpenAI bear
High-score alert from an 11-wallet funded cluster taking the No side across related OpenAI valuation markets, backed by a wallet with large positive lifetime P&L.
$1,179Wallet win rate: 52%Score: 11.0 - Profitable serial trader buys NO
A highly profitable 75% lifetime bettor with extensive cross-market history is buying No on a relatively thin OpenAI valuation market.
$1,657Wallet win rate: 74%Score: 10.5 - 11-wallet funded cluster
High-severity linked-wallet signal: an 11-wallet funded cluster is buying Yes on a thin OpenAI valuation market, with this trade larger than the market's full 24h volume.
$7,743Wallet win rate: 52%Score: 9.0 - 11-wallet funded cluster
An 11-wallet cluster sharing the same funder is collectively betting Yes on a thin OpenAI valuation market, with this wallet entering at 50¢ before the market moved to 60¢.
$1,000Wallet win rate: 52%Score: 8.0
Top wallets in this event
- 0x8a4c78…532b$29,940 · 4 markets · 11 alerts · 52% wins
- 0x76aaa2…c4f4$4,000 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0x433723…8882$3,011 · 2 markets · 2 alerts · 74% wins
- 0xed107a…d2e5$2,446 · 1 market · 1 alert · 90% wins
- 0xb121f5…b73c$1,560 · 1 market · 1 alert · 100% wins
- 0x8454f3…331a$1,217 · 1 market · 1 alert · 91% wins
- 0xd8e024…c1a7$1,033 · 1 market · 1 alert · 79% wins
- 0x9be69b…7535$1,024 · 1 market · 1 alert · 79% wins
- 0xa9e64c…1dc2$1,013 · 1 market · 1 alert · 82% wins
FAQs
What are the Polymarket odds for OpenAI hitting an $800B valuation?
This event’s live odds reflect traders’ implied probability that OpenAI’s NPM-reported private valuation reaches or exceeds $800B by December 31, 2026. PolySpotter tracks the market along with smart-money flows and notable wallet activity.
What is the smart money doing on this OpenAI valuation market?
PolySpotter has tracked $16,486 in smart-money activity across this event, with 2 signals detected. Recent alerts flagged an 11-wallet funded cluster, which can suggest coordinated or related wallet activity worth watching.
How does this OpenAI valuation prediction market resolve?
The market resolves Yes if Nasdaq Private Market reports an NPM Price for OpenAI at or above $800B on any eligible date from market creation through December 31, 2026. If that threshold is not reached, it resolves No.
When will the OpenAI $800B valuation market be settled?
The event is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027, after the December 31, 2026 deadline and the relevant NPM valuation data are available.