Part of: Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by...?

Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $2,481.

Categories: Geopolitics, Ukraine, Ukraine Map

Notable Trades

Profitable new war bettor

A 10-day-old wallet with repeat large-bet flags and early profits is buying No near resolution on a Ukraine territorial-control market.

  • This 10-day-old wallet is already up $1.5K and has won all 3 resolved bets.
  • It has now been flagged 4 times for large bets, totaling $16.9K in tracked positions.
  • The $1.5K No buy is meaningful versus $7.5K liquidity, with resolution only days away.

$1,481 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

13-0 bettor buying NO

A perfect-record wallet with a $6k cross-market thesis bought No in a thin, wide-spread conflict market and the price has already moved in their favor.

  • This bettor has won all 13 resolved bets and is up $13,027 lifetime.
  • They bought No at 75¢ on a thin market, and it has already moved to 82¢.
  • The wallet has $6,000 positioned across related markets, suggesting a broader thesis on this event.

$1,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

  1. 0x6f8b...56ed Outcome 77186015, $9,000
  2. 0xcc59...cd31 Outcome 77186015, $3,932 (100% win rate)
  3. 0x3fe9...3546 Outcome 77186015, $2,035
  4. 0x9952...2edb Outcome 77186015, $2,000
  5. 0x582a...7bb2 Outcome 77186015, $2,000
  6. 0xbfba...7567 Outcome 77186015, $1,334 (100% win rate)
  7. 0x140e...417a Outcome 77186015, $1,263
  8. 0xc7be...ee1d Outcome 77186015, $1,083
  9. 0xee21...1271 Outcome 77186015, $1,055
  10. 0xe443...c065 Outcome 77186015, $1,016

Related Theses

No US-Iran peace deal

Covers 3 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Israel avoids airspace closure

Covers 3 related markets

Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?

ResolvedWill Russia capture all of Hryshyne by...?$2,481 tracked2 signalsGeopoliticsUkraineUkraine Map

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Hryshyne, Donetsk Oblast, (48.326812° N, 37.081701° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Hryshyne will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/4PzLD4keUCHdSRLC6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Notable Trades

Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?

18d ago

$1,481 on No at 81¢

Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?

45d ago

$1,000 on No at 75¢

Related Theses