Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, (48.303080° N, 37.192568° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Pokrovsk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/rwDQehLsZAUsquVX7 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $5,000.

Categories: Geopolitics, Ukraine, Ukraine Map

Notable Trades

Perfect-record bettor buys NO

A perfect-record profitable wallet made a $5k NO bet that was large relative to this thin geopolitical market.

  • This bettor is 13-for-13 on resolved trades and is up $13k lifetime.
  • The $5k bet was 74% of the market’s 24h volume, showing strong conviction in a thin book.
  • They bought No at 89¢ and it has already moved to 92¢.

$5,000 on No | Wallet win rate: 100%

Top Holders

  1. 0xbfba...7567 No, $5,627 (100% win rate)
  2. 0x5d91...3578 Yes, $2,578 (49% win rate)
  3. 0xf130...88dd Yes, $1,000
  4. 0x5709...22c3 Yes, $781
  5. 0xac4a...bf1e Yes, $738
  6. 0xb03f...c592 Yes, $655
  7. 0xbd6d...ed0b Yes, $608
  8. 0xce83...5b97 No, $593
  9. 0xc5a3...883a Yes, $517
  10. 0x65d4...b7e3 No, $464

Related Theses

Covers 2 related markets

Covers 2 related markets

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?

29d$5,000 tracked1 signalGeopoliticsUkraineUkraine Map
Yes
22¢
No
78¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast, (48.303080° N, 37.192568° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Pokrovsk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/rwDQehLsZAUsquVX7 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Price History — “No
86¢
57¢
28¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?

3h ago

$5,000 on No at 89¢

89¢78¢11¢

Related Theses