Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by May 31?

This Polymarket asks whether Russia will capture the key intersection at 47.612850° N, 36.062680° E in Huliaipilske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast by May 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes if any part of that intersection is shaded red on the ISW map by 11:59 PM ET on the deadline; otherwise it resolves to No. Traders following Ukraine war prediction markets are using this contract to price the odds of further Russian advances in this area.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.612850° N, 36.062680° E in Huliaipilske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske1.png Intersection Location in Huliaipilske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske2.png Huliaipilske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/MyKqBywUGcMihVGJ8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,732.

Categories: Ukraine Map, Ukraine, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

18-wallet funded cluster

An 18-wallet linked cluster is active in an extremely thin war market, and this wallet has an unusually high 91% hit rate despite mostly betting near-certain outcomes.

  • 18 linked wallets share the same funder and have put about $3.5k behind the same thesis
  • This bet was large for the market: $1.7k in a market with just $4.5k of 24h volume and only $200 of liquidity
  • This wallet wins 91% of resolved bets, though it usually buys very high-probability outcomes

$1,732 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 91%

Top Holders

  1. 0x0167...e439 No, $26
  2. 0x7d02...8c95 Yes, $18
  3. 0x8fc8...5709 Yes, $14
  4. 0xc2d9...34ee Yes, $8
  5. 0xbd02...5e41 No, $8
  6. 0x9cfd...dfe7 No, $7
  7. 0x53a3...e5af Yes, $1

Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by May 31?

46d$1,732 tracked1 signalUkraine MapUkraineGeopolitics
Yes
28¢
No
73¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.612850° N, 36.062680° E in Huliaipilske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske1.png Intersection Location in Huliaipilske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske2.png Huliaipilske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Huliaipilske3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/MyKqBywUGcMihVGJ8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Price History — “No
74¢
63¢
52¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by May 31?

4h ago

$1,732 on Yes at 78¢

78¢28¢50¢
Will Russia Capture Huliaipilske by May 31? | PolySpotter