Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dopropillia (https://maps.app.goo.gl/vipjg3UsWpqRnhM6A) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. This market refers to the city of Dobropillia (48.47, 37.08) which borders Sviatohorivka and Hannivka. Other Ukrainian towns/cities named Dobropillia will not be considered for resolution. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,776.
Notable Trades
Sharp trader flips back to Yes
A proven high-volume bettor with a 74% win rate is reopening bullish exposure on Yes in a relatively quiet war market after previously trading both sides, suggesting fresh conviction rather than routine noise.
- This bettor has won 796 of 1,082 resolved trades and is up about $395k overall.
- The trade was effectively a BUY Yes at 26¢, a low entry price for a bettor with a long track record across 124 events.
- This $1.8k order was nearly half of the market’s $3.7k 24-hour volume, showing real conviction in a quieter market.
$1,776 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 74%
Top Holders
- 0x5739...5f1a — Yes, $31,666
- 0x8631...9a73 — Yes, $20,626
- 0x5d91...3578 — No, $11,659
- 0x30be...4e33 — No, $8,768
- 0x8fe7...4f20 — Yes, $7,955 (58% win rate)
- 0x60dc...9057 — No, $7,100
- 0xba5e...6c40 — No, $6,466
- 0xcf9e...518e — No, $6,390
- 0x0f4f...7039 — No, $4,923
- 0xb8b4...1f6e — Yes, $4,262
