Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?
This Polymarket asks whether Russia will capture any part of Dovha Balka in Donetsk Oblast by April 30, 2026. The market resolves to Yes if the ISW map shows any portion of Dovha Balka under Russian-controlled shading by the deadline; otherwise it resolves to No. Traders use this market to follow real-time prediction market odds on Russian advances in eastern Ukraine.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dovha Balka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.48905979884506° N, 37.60464316125542° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,568.
Categories: Geopolitics, Ukraine Map, Ukraine
Notable Trades
70% war-market grinder
A high-volume serial cross-market trader with a strong long-term record bought into a thin, fast-moving war market before further upside, making this a credible conviction signal despite the modest size.
- This bettor has won 850 of 1,223 resolved markets and is up about $308k overall.
- They trade this kind of event repeatedly across 129 related events, suggesting a real process rather than a random punt.
- They bought Yes at 59¢ in a market with under $5k 24h volume, and the price has already moved up to 64¢.
$1,568 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 70%
Top Holders
- 0x8f69...7df1 — Yes, $6,050 (70% win rate)
- 0x4a2b...af20 — Yes, $1,400 (39% win rate)
- 0x9bbd...6e72 — No, $1,345
- 0x9238...b73e — No, $1,125 (39% win rate)
- 0x2d4b...ca7a — No, $750
- 0xe762...064b — No, $530 (45% win rate)
- 0xca08...1267 — No, $515
- 0xfffe...4e6c — Yes, $470
- 0xb7c1...675e — No, $400
- 0x748a...3c56 — No, $349
