Part of: Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by...?

Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?

This prediction market asks whether Russia will capture any part of Huliaipilske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by May 31, 2026, using the ISW map as the resolution source. PolySpotter is tracking $2,593 in smart money and 1 smart money signal, including a recent thin-market Yes whale alert. The market resolves “Yes” if any part of Huliaipilske is shown as Russian-controlled on the specified ISW layer by the deadline; otherwise it resolves “No.”

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Huliaipilske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.612850° N, 36.062680° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $2,593.

Categories: Geopolitics, Ukraine, Ukraine Map

Notable Trades

Thin-market Yes whale

A single wallet made a $2.6k Yes buy that was nearly 8x the market's 24h volume in a thin Russia-Ukraine territory market and the price has already moved sharply higher.

  • This $2.6k buy was almost 8x the market’s 24h volume, a large conviction bet in a quiet market.
  • The bettor entered at 54¢ and the market is now around 68¢ after a 31-point move in the last day.
  • The wallet is modestly profitable so far, up about $12k across 6 resolved bets.

$2,593 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 67%

Top Holders

  1. 0x2758...a3af No, $6,586
  2. 0xfb4f...8385 Yes, $4,845 (67% win rate)
  3. 0x3a89...a4d6 Yes, $1,690
  4. 0x8f69...7df1 Yes, $1,571 (69% win rate)
  5. 0x78e2...da9d No, $1,437
  6. 0xe443...c065 No, $919
  7. 0x9ca1...13b5 Yes, $823 (58% win rate)
  8. 0x7c8b...a211 Yes, $585 (54% win rate)
  9. 0x0b65...013e Yes, $570
  10. 0xe6fd...8bc3 No, $555

Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?

20dWill Russia enter Huliaipilske by...?$2,593 tracked1 signalGeopoliticsUkraineUkraine Map
Yes
82¢
No
18¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Huliaipilske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.612850° N, 36.062680° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Price History — “Yes
81¢
58¢
36¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?

4h ago

$2,593 on Yes at 54¢

54¢82¢28¢