Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?

This Polymarket asks whether Russia will capture any part of Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi, Kharkiv Oblast, by April 30, 2026. The market resolves to Yes if the ISW map shows any portion of the specified area under Russian control before the deadline; otherwise it resolves No. PolySpotter tracks smart money activity on this geopolitical prediction market, which currently has $1,756 in tracked smart money across 1 signal.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi, Kharkiv Oblast, (49.657786° N, 37.645515° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

1 smart money signal detected, totaling $1,756.

Categories: Ukraine, Ukraine Map, Geopolitics

Notable Trades

72% win-rate event specialist

A high-volume serial cross-market bettor with a 72% win rate is flipping into Yes on a fast-moving war market after previously closing a small No position.

  • This bettor has won 528 of 730 resolved markets and is up $267,760 overall.
  • They trade heavily across related events — 161 markets across 105 events with $8.8M deployed.
  • They bought Yes at 89¢ after previously closing a small No position, showing a fresh directional shift as this market climbed sharply.

$1,756 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 72%

Top Holders

  1. 0x0b65...293e Yes, $23,383 (92% win rate)
  2. 0xcb2b...1921 Yes, $12,164 (56% win rate)
  3. 0x4e42...49ed No, $12,000 (61% win rate)
  4. 0x8b18...5543 No, $10,918
  5. 0x9106...61f2 No, $10,050
  6. 0x7c8b...a211 Yes, $8,986 (54% win rate)
  7. 0xd5cc...dea4 Yes, $7,013 (72% win rate)
  8. 0xc984...37ca Yes, $6,962 (77% win rate)
  9. 0x6e30...52e3 No, $6,682
  10. 0x5148...cd81 Yes, $6,682 (95% win rate)

Related Theses

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Covers 1 related market

Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?

4d$1,756 tracked1 signalUkraineUkraine MapGeopolitics
Yes
100¢
No
0¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi, Kharkiv Oblast, (49.657786° N, 37.645515° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Price History — “Yes
102¢
53¢
Alert entriesHigh-conviction

Notable Trades

Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?

2h ago

$1,756 on Yes at 89¢

89¢100¢11¢

Related Theses