Part of: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?

Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv. The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.

2 smart money signals detected, totaling $8,561.

Categories: Kyiv, Russia, Ukraine, zelensky, zelenskyy, Geopolitics, Military Actions

Notable Trades

Established bettor adding to Yes

The wallet added a $3,306 Yes position in a thin market, a trade equal to 66% of its 24-hour volume, despite the price falling since entry.

  • Added $3,306 to an existing Yes position, showing increased conviction.
  • The trade was 66% of the market’s 24-hour volume, and the wallet has 324 resolved bets.
  • Yes has since fallen from 67¢ to 54¢, while the market’s very wide spread makes execution uncertain.

$3,306 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Thin-market bettor scaling into Yes

The wallet made a sizable, repeated Yes purchase in a thin market, though its track record does not show a clear odds-adjusted edge and current pricing is unreliable.

  • The bettor bought about $5,254 of Yes at 66–67¢, far exceeding the market’s reported $711 liquidity.
  • They have 76% wins across 324 resolved bets, but their average winning entry is 84¢, so the record alone does not show a clear edge.
  • Yes is now quoted at 54% with an 80-point bid-ask spread, making the displayed price and execution difficult to trust.

$5,254 on Yes | Wallet win rate: 76%

Top Holders

  1. 0x50ea...010f — No, $9,838
  2. 0xc7d0...1f8a — No, $112
  3. 0xe308...309c — No, $110
  4. 0xa24d...3065 — No, $100
  5. 0xf9f9...0248 — No, $60
  6. 0xb986...4b60 — No, $36
  7. 0x510f...a43c — No, $30
  8. 0xb104...10c9 — No, $25
  9. 0xeab7...b389 — No, $20
  10. 0x0d86...c264 — No, $15

Related Theses

Russia will target Kyiv both days

Covers 2 related markets

Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026?

Will Russia target Kyiv on...?$8,561 tracked2 signalsKyivRussiaUkrainezelenskyzelenskyyGeopoliticsMilitary Actions
Yes
100¢
No
0¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv. The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.

Notable Trades

Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026?

2026-10-13 04:37 UTC

$3,306 on Yes at 67¢

67¢→100¢↑33¢

Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026?

2026-10-13 04:26 UTC

$5,254 on Yes at 67¢

67¢→100¢↑33¢

Related Theses